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Chart Signals: Oil rally helps resource currencies to rebound, NZD up ahead of RBNZ

The big story so far today has been a continuing rebound in crude oil which is carrying through to resource currencies like CAD, AUD and NZD, plus resource weighted indices like the Australia 200. NZD may be active around today’s RBNZ decision. Meanwhile the US Dollar continues to climb, particularly relative to EUR and JPY. 

Asia Pacific Indices

Australia 200 is on the rebound bouncing back up toward 5,900 after successfully retesting its 50-day average and setting a higher low on trend. Resistance remains in place at a double top near 5,955 followed by the 6,000 round number. RSI holding 50 also indicates underlying upward momentum remains intact. 

Japan 225 is having an inside day, consolidating its recent breakout over 18,695 trading between 18,890 and 18,960 while working off a really overbought RSI. Resistance has emerged near the 20,000 round number. 

Hong Kong 50 broke out over 25,000 yesterday, advancing on 25,140 with support climbing toward 25,080. RSI broke out of a downtrend, confirming upward momentum accelerating. Next measured resistance possible near 25.195.  

North American and European Indices

US 30 continues to roll over. The index has dropped back under 21,000 falling into the 20,890 to 20,940 zone with next potential support at the 50-day average near 20,800. RSI falling toward 50 indicates a downturn pending. 

US SPX 500 is stalling near 2,400 indicating a bull trap happened earlier this week and that a double top is forming. The index has dropped back toward 2,390 with next potential support near 2,380 then the 50-day average near 2,370. 

US NDAQ 100 has encountered resistance near 5,690 and is consolidating recent gains just below that level. RSI overbought and levelling off indicates upward momentum slowing and the potential for a correction. Initial support possible near 5,655 then 5,625. 

UK 100 continues to climb with support moving up toward 7,300 from 7,260 and the index advancing on 7,385. Rising RSI confirms increasing upward momentum. Next potential resistance near 7,400 then 7,440 near previous highs. 

Germany 30 has levelled off near 12,750, having dropped back from 12,895 resistance. RSI near overbought indicates potential for a rest stop or a correction. Next potential support near 12,610 then 12,515 in a pullback. 


Gold appears to be levelling off in the $1,210 to $1,230 area, trading near $1,222. RSI levelling off near 30 suggests the recent selloff may be nearing an end as selling pressure eases. Initial resistance on a rebound possible near $1,240 with additional support possible near $1,200. 

Crude Oil WTI is starting to turn back upward, breaking out of a $45.00 to $47.00 trading range and advancing on $47.45 with next potential resistance near $47.70 a Fibonacci level then $48.40. RSI climbing up off 30 indicates a trading bounce underway as selling pressure eases. 


US Dollar Index continues to climb, establishing its 99.25 breakout point as support and filling in a gap advancing on 99.60. Next potential resistance appears at the 100.00 round number, then 100.30. RSI regaining 50 confirms momentum turning back upward. 

EURUSD has found support near $1.0850 and appears to be stabilizing between there and $1.0900. So far this appears to be a pause within a downswing with resistance falling from $1.1000 toward $1.0930. Next support possible at the 200-day average near $1.0820 then the 50-day average near $1.0740. 

GBPUSD remains under accumulation with support moving up toward $1.2920 from $1.2900. The index continues to struggle with $1.3000 round number resistance with its next test closer to $1.3150. RSI suggests a normal consolidation phase within an uptrend underway. 

NZDUSD is on the rebound, regaining $0.6900 and advancing on $0.6935 with initial resistance possible at its 50-day average near $0.6975. Although recent signs have been encouraging, the pair really needs to retake $0.7000 and 50 on the RSI to call off the current downtrend.  

AUDUSD has bounced up off of $0.7330 having confirmed Fibonacci support there. Some resistance has emerged near $0.7400 with more possible near $0.7445 then $0.7500. Additional support in place near $0.7285. 

USDSGD remains in an uptrend with its $1.4085 breakout point becoming new support up from $1.4055. Some initial resistance has emerged near $1.4125 with more possible near $1.4155 then $1.4200. 

USDJPY has paused for a rest near 114.30, consolidating the rally of the last two days and working off a slightly overbought RSI. Support moves up toward 113.35 a Fibonacci level from 113.00. Next resistance appears near 114.60 then the 115.00 round number.  

GBPJPY has paused for a rest between 147.40 and 148.00. RSI is really overbought but is still confirming increasing upward momentum, so a rally toward 148.50 or 150.00 remains possible with a correction back toward 146.60 or 145.00 also possible. 

EURJPY has levelled off near 124.00 the top of a six month broad channel having encountered resistance near 124.50. RSI really overbought and levelling off suggests recent uptrend running out of gas and a pause or correction possible. Initial support tests near 123.75 then 123.00. 

USDCAD is starting to turn back downward away from $1.3800 resistance, sliding back under $1.3700 and on toward $1.3665 with next potential support in the $1.3570 to $1.3600 area. RSI back under 70 from overbought signals a trading correction deepening. 

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