With a full day to digest yesterday’s FOMC decision and projections, trades appear to have liked what they have seen Following some initial consolidation this morning, a number of markets have staged another leg upwards and have broken through resistance including the US 30, US SPX 500, Australia 200, AUD and WTI crude oil. Gold and NZD, meanwhile, continue to advance on recent highs. CAD and JPY, however, may have moved too fast too soon and are showing signs of exhaustion and potential reversal.
Asia Pacific Indices
Australia 200 is breaking out today, clearing 5,200 to complete a consolidation phase and signal the start of a new upleg on trend with next potential resistance near 5,265 then 5,325 a Fibonacci level. RSI confirms uptrend momentum intact.
Japan 225 successfully retested 16,525 the bottom of a trading channel and 50 on the RSI to keep its uptrend intact and has bounced back up through 16,815 and on toward 16,900. Upside resistance possible near 17,000 and then 17,165.
Hong Kong 50 slipped back from near 20,600 toward 20,300 in its first attempt at breaking out of a 20,200 to 20,575 Fibonacci channel but it has resumed advancing with rising RSI indicating increasing upward momentum. Next potential resistance on trend near 20,710.
India 50 ran into resistance near 7,600 and has been knocked back down through 7,515 and 7,500 on its way toward 7,460 with next potential support in the 17,390 to 17,410 zone. RSI suggests upward momentum weakening.
North American and European Indices
US 30 continues to advance, holding above 17,195 Fibonacci support through a correction then breaking through 17,400 on its way toward 17,500 with initial support moving up toward 17,450. RSI getting overbought suggests potential for a pause or retest. Next upside resistance on trend near 17,750.
US NDAQ 100 has run into a wall of resistance at its 200-day average near 4,420 but remains in an uptrend with support rising toward 4,390 from 4,345 a Fibonacci level while RSI indicates underlying upward momentum still increasing.
US SPX 500 is breaking out today, clearing 2,040 following a successful retest of 2,015 200-day average and Fibonacci support. Next resistance possible near 2,060 a Fibonacci test. Overbought RSI suggests potential for a near term pause or correction.
Germany 30 was pounded back down into the 9,750 to 9,830 range after a peek above 10,000 failed to hold again but regained its footing and has clawed its way back toward 9,900 as a reverse head and shoulders base continues to form.
UK 100 is bouncing around between 6,130 and 6,230testing both sides of the range today. RSI holding between 50 and 60 suggests a consolidation phase within an uptrend.
Gold continues to climb, advancing into the $1,255 to $1,270 range where it has paused to digest a big rally up from $1,228. Upside resistance remains in place near $1,284 then $1,300 around a prior high, round number and Fibonacci cluster.
Crude Oil WTI is breaking out again today, clearing $38.25 a Fibonacci level which has come in as new support so far up from $36.40. Initial resistance near $39.20 was quickly dispatched with the price driving on toward $39.65 with next potential resistance near $40.00 then $41.20. An overbought RSI suggests a pause possible sometime soon.
US Dollar Index is getting demolished for a second straight day falling from near 95.80 down through 95.00 and on toward 94.70. An oversold RSI suggests it could bounce around near 95.00 in the near term while it digests recent losses in a normal pause of an emerging downtrend.
EURUSD rallied for a second straight day, driving up through a Fibonacci cluster to clear $1.1300 after pausing near $1.1225 overnight. Rising RSI indicates upward momentum still increasing with next resistance near $1.1340 then $1.1375 its February high.
NZDUSD continues to rally, clearing $0.6810 which may become support and advancing on a test of its December high near $0.6870 with next key resistance after that near the $0.7000 round number. A break of the RSI over 60 would confirm a shift in momentum to upward from sideways.
AUDUSD is breaking out today, clearing $0.7600 and retesting it as new support before advancing on $0.7660 with next resistance after that possible near $0.7745. RSI confirms upward momentum but nearing overbought territory.
USDCNH is breaking down again, falling through 6.4795 a Fibonacci level to signal the start of a new downleg that could potentially test 6.4520 or its 200-day average near 6.4180. RSI getting oversold so a retest of the breakdown point or 6.5000 appears possible.
USDJPY has a key technical test underway today. The pair broke 111.00 and fell toward 110.70, with next potential support near the 110.00 round number, but then bounced back toward 111.40 in what looks like a bear trap reversal and a triple bottom. Next bounce resistance near 111.90.
EURJPY is hanging around 1276.20 within a 125.40 to 126.50 range with RSI sitting on 50 confirming sideways momentum.
CADJPY is holding steady between 84.55 and 86.20, two Fibonacci levels with RSI steady just above 50 confirming the current consolidation phase.
USDSGD is under pressure for a second straight day, this time diving from near $1.3650 toward a test of the $1.3500 round number where it could pause or possible even bounce a bit with RSI getting oversold again.
USDCAD was driven down hard from $1.3400 under $30.00 but appears to be bouncing back. A dip down to $1.2940 and back up to $1.3030 could be a bear trap washout around a round number and measured objective. An oversold RSI and positive divergence suggest potential for a trading bounce with initial resistance tests near $1.3050 then $1.3100.