Here is today’s wrap and chart signals
Index Chart Signals
US 30: Friday’s price action saw the start of a short term downtrend on the daily chart with a lower high and lower low. The RSI is above 50% but is still tracking sideways indicating that momentum has slowed and could be rolling over with potential for a correction of the recent rally. The 38.2% retracement of the recent rally at 17,885 has potential to be the initial resting point for any correction that might develop. Below that, the 200 day moving average and 61.8% retracement provide potential support around 17,760/17,720. Friday’s high and the 23 June peak provide initial resistance around 18,150/18,190.
Germany 30: The uptrend remains intact on the daily chart. However, Friday’s candle traded inside the previous day’s range in a sign of stalled momentum. From here, a move lower to fill Thursday’s gap, would be a sign of exhaustion indicating a downward correction is getting underway. The 27 May peak and 78.6% retracement level provide the next potential resistance levels around 11,927/12,024. Peaks and lows from earlier in the week on the hourly chart provide potential support around 11,500 and below that the old trend line resistance around 11,300
Australia 200: The daily trend remains up. The RSI remains above 50% but rolled over on Friday indicating potential for reduced upward momentum. Price is now close to the next possible resistance zone around 5690/5710.This is represented by the 24 June peak at 5705 and 50% retracement of the whole move lower from late April. The peak between the double bottom pattern and the 200 day moving average provide potential support around 5590/5610.
Hong Kong H Shares: Friday’s candle made a higher low and higher high, starting a new short term uptrend. Last week’s high at 12,088 now becomes an important level. Failure to get above it means that a medium term downward correction may still be underway. A move past 12088 would indicate a medium term uptrend and potential for a larger corrective rally. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 11,237 and the 78.6% at 11.005 may be levels to watch if 12088 is taken out. The previous low at 10,711 represents support and a break below that would see resumption of the big picture downtrend
Forex Chart Signals
AUDUSD Daily candles are making lower highs and lower lows confirming a short term downtrend. However, momentum is low with the 14 period RSI continuing to track a little higher out of the oversold zone creating divergence. Friday’s candle was also inside Thursdays’ range indicating sideways drift. The area around .7325/.7285 may be a potential turning point. This sees the intersection of a downward sloping tend line and an AB = CD pattern. Recent peaks around .7490 represent potential resistance.
EURUSD: The daily candles are still making lower lows and lower highs meaning the short term trend is down. The RSI is also heading lower below 50% indicating potential for lower prices. The next possible support could be the late May low at 1.0819 and an AB=CD level just below that at 1.0777. Given current downward momentum the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and ABx 127% = CD level around 1.067/1.061 shown on the chart below looks well in sight. Last Friday’s high and the 50 day moving average provide resistance around 1.1140/1.1216
Commodity Chart Signals
Crude Oil WTI: The downtrend continues in the daily time frame. However, Fridays’ low was around the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and the 14 period RSI on the hourly chart has broken above 50% indicating we could be in for an upward correction. This would be confirmed by a break above resistance on the hourly chart around $51.15. However, if price continues to drift lower there are now 2 ABCD patterns projecting $49.75 as a possible turning point. The first is the larger (blue) ABx127% = CD shown on the hourly chart below; the second is the red ab=cd projection
Gold: Gold continues in a short term downtrend in the daily time frame with Friday’s candle breaking below the March low at 1143. Gold is now testing the November low of $1131. The RSI continues to track lower indicating downward momentum. It has hit the oversold zone below 30% but strong trends can remain oversold for a long time. Below $1131, there is potential support from an AB x 1.27 =CD pattern around 1117. The 8 July low at $1147 provides initial resistance around $1147. In the big picture, a decline to potential wedge support around $1090 looks possible over the medium term.