We might have a couple of key sessions ahead of us. The US stock market pushed strongly through resistance on Friday but other markets are still hanging at possible turning points this morning. This could create some opportunities as other markets either break and follow the US in a "risk on" direction or back off turning points
Australia 200: Is now parked at the resistance of the 200 day moving average and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. A push through this would set up for a test of resistance around 5380/5400. However, the negative scenario outlined in Friday’s chart signals remains a possibility. This would be indicated by the daily candle starting to make lower highs and lower lows. A break below this week’s low at 5081 would be a sign of weakness as would the RSI breaking below its channel support and the 50% level. Overlap below the 5046 support would be a big picture sign of weakness.
Australia 200 CFD Daily
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Germany 30 had a strong session on Friday but the day’s candle remained inside Thursday’s range. The RSI is showing signs of bouncing off the 50% zone which is a positive. The direction of the break out of Thursday’s range could determine the medium term picture. Thursday’s high was 9997 while its low was 9396. A break above 9997 could see a push towards the 200 day moving average and 61.8% retracement around 10,386/10450. A break below 9396 leaves intact the bearish scenario outlined in Friday’s chart signals. This could see a deeper downward correction to the 61.8% or 78.6% retracement levels around 9193 or 8974 or the next leg down with a break of 8696 to follow.
US SPX500 pushed through the 2000 resistance and closed at its high on Friday. The RSI continues to trend higher and is not yet over bought. Last week’s low and previous highs are support around 1970. A harmonic AB=CD level and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level are possible near term objectives around 2030/2042.
EURUSD failed to push up past Thursday’s high but the 14 day RSI is still trending broadly higher and below the overbought zone. The big picture triangle scenario remains intact. . A rally to and failure at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement around 1.2587 could see completion of the latest swing setting up for a return to the triangle base line around 1.05. Alternatively a move up through triangle resistance around 1.134 could see a test of the 1.1377 peak
AUDUSD: It’s crunch time for the broadening top possibility shown on the 4 hour chart below. Price continues to show bearish divergence with the RSI and is testing the resistance line for a third time. Falling away from here would be a potentially bearish scenario, setting up for a test of the .74 support and possibly a deeper correction, to around 73c. If the resistance line is taken out, the next levels are the previous lows around .7598 followed by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and harmonic level around .7650.
AUDUSD CFD 4 hour
Crude Oil Brent remains on hold and is yet to break outside Tuesday’s range. On the 4 hour chart this has set up a triangle pattern. Another bounce off the triangle support could set up for the next swing higher in a 5 swing advance. A break below the triangle support would indicate a deeper downward correction bringing the 38.2%; 50% of 61.8% retracement levels into play at $39; $38.30 or $37.50
Crude Oil Brent May 2016
Gold is showing signs of rejecting the first “flagpole” projection level. This would be confirmed by a break below $1236 support that could set up for a correction of the last major rally. If it can hang on and continue pushing higher, the next major resistance level is the past peak around $1308
Gold cash CFD Daily