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Chart Signals: JPY weakens on dovish monetary speculation ahead of Japan data

Dovish comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda has undermined JPY. While the decline relative to USD, where the central bank is looking hawkish, has been most pronounced, JPY is also giving back ground to EUR, GBP and CAD. Tests of 50-day averages and 50 on the RSI may signal how serious these changes in trend may be. Japan 225 often trades in the opposite direction of JPY pairs and may also be active today around Japanese economic reports.  

Asia Pacific Indices

Australia 200 is retesting 5,485 as resistance following a breakdown yesterday that took it down toward initial support near 5,440 with its next test after that possible near 5,385. RSI under 50 and falling indicates downward pressure increasing. Next upside resistance possible on a rebound near 5,500. 

Japan 225 continues to bounce following yesterday’s bear trap washout below 16,500 and retest of 16,325 Fibonacci support. RSI holding 50 suggests its underlying uptrend remains intact. Having regained 16,675 next potential resistance appears near 16,815 a Fibonacci level. 

Hong Kong 50 appears to be rolling over having dropped back under 23,000 which has become lower resistance and falling into the 22,870 to 22,920 area with next support near 22,325. RSI falling towards 50 indicates a downtrend pending. 

North American and European Indices

US 30 is rebounding within Friday’s 18,330 to 18,570 range while RSI has regained 50 for the moment. A sideways trend continues but lower highs suggest the index remains vulnerable to distribution.  

US NDAQ 100 is sitting steady near 4,800 trading in a 4,760 to 4,830 trading range following what may be the completion of a double top. RSI indicates upward momentum weakening. 

US SPX 500 held 2,165 and 50 on the RSI to indicate continued underlying support and has bounced back within its 2,160 to 2,190 trading channel recently trading just above 2,180.   

UK 100 is closed for a UK bank holiday today. 

Germany 30 is sitting steady just above 18,500, but resistance falling toward 10,560 continues a trend of lower highs that are forming a descending triangle above 18,400 and indicating increased distribution. 


Gold is clinging to $1,320 at the bottom of Friday’s range. Initial support near $1,312 where a break would take out the bottom of a sideways channel with next resistance at a Fibonacci cluster near $1,295. RSI under 50 and falling indicates downward pressure increasing. Resistance falls toward $1,325 from the 50-day average near $1,332. 

Crude Oil WTI remains stuck below a lower high near $47.00 trading near $46.50. RSI suggests upward momentum has levelled off. Initial support near $46.00 then $44.80 to $45.20 where a round number, Fibonacci level and the 50-day average cluster. 


US Dollar Index ran into resistance at its 50-day average and has dropped back a bit but overall continues to build on Friday’s break out of a downtrend and up through 95.00 testing its 50-day average near 95.75 with next potential resistance near 96.50. RSI back above 50 confirms upturn in momentum. 

EURUSD is drifting lower again breaking under $1.1200 toward $1.1160 before bouncing back a bit. RSI falling under 50 confirms momentum turning downward. Next potential support in the $1.1100 to $1.1150 area between the 50 and 200-day averages. 

GBPUSD is getting knocked back a bit as USD rallies and following a failure of the RSI to retake 50. $1.3200 has given way and the pair has dropped back toward the $1.3060 to $1.3120 area still holding well above $1.3000 round number support. 

NZDUSD remains in an uptrend recently holding above $0.7195 Fibonacci support and bouncing back toward $0.7265. RSI holding 50 confirms underlying upward momentum continues. upside resistance in place near $0.7320 then $0.7380. 

AUDUSD is breaking down today, falling under $0.7580 to break an uptrend support line and then retesting it as new resistance to confirm the downturn. Next potential support near $0.7500. RSI falling under 50 indicates downward pressure emerging. 

USDSGD continues to climb, building on last week’s breakout by taking a run at $1.3620 while support rises toward $1.3590 and rising RSI indicates growing accumulation.  Resistance remains in place near $1.3640 then $1.3740. 

USDJPY faltered short of its 50-day average and dropped back toward 1.02.00 in what looks like normal backing and filling after soaring up off 100.00 late last week.  RSI moving back above 50 confirms momentum turning upward with next potential resistance near 102.60 and the 50-day average then 103.40 and 105.15 a 23% retracement of the previous downtrend. 

GBPJPY has levelled off near 133.60 in what looks like a normal pause for a rest within an emerging uptrend. RSI testing 50 which it needs to clear to confirm the upturn with next resistance near 136.00 where the 50-day average and a 23% retracement level converge. 

EURJPY continues to base build, currently testing 50 on the RSI and its 50-day average near 114.55 where breakouts would signal the start of a new recovery trend with next resistance possible near 115.00 then 117.15. 

CADJPY is trading back above 78.00 but it needs to clear its 50-day average near 79.00 and 50 on the RSI to indicate this as a breakout and confirm a double bottom is in place. Next resistance near 80.00 where a round number and 23% retracement converge.  

USDCAD is starting to break out today, clearing round number and Fibonacci resistance near $1.3000 confirmed by RSI regaining 50. Next potential resistance near $1.3035 then $1.3080 and $1.3130 in an upswing. 

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