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Chart Signals: JPY breaks out but looking overextended

Chart Signals: JPY breaks out but looking overextended

Japan looks like the main focus technically again today. JPY along with gold has been attracting defensive capital again today, driving USDJPY and EURJPY down (JPY strengthening) but RSI moving into oversold territory suggests potential for snap trading reversal at some point. Japan 225 continues to trade in the opposite direction of JPY.

Asia Pacific Indices

Australia 200 ran into resistance near 5,045 and has been pounded back down through 5,000 and on toward 4,950 where some support has emerged at a higher low. RSI holding 50 suggests this to be more of a trading correction than a downturn so far. Next potential support near 4,900 the 4,860.

Japan 225 is breaking down again, taking out 16,000 on its way down from 16,310 on its way into the 15.840 to 15,920 area with next potential support near 15,740 then 15,640. Lower highs on the RSI and index indicate primary downtrend resuming.

Hong Kong 50 is holding steady between 19,410 and 19,480 within a 19,090 to 19,710 range between two Fibonacci levels. RSI near 50 confirms sideways momentum.

India 50 failed at a lower high near 7,240 and remains in a downtrend with RSI still under 50 and rolling over again. Testing the 7,100 to 7,140 area next potential support appears ner 7,055 then 7,000.

North American and European Indices

US 30 has dropped back under 16,475 a Fibonacci level after running into resistance near 16,600 although support coming in near 16,415 a higher low indicates continued underlying accumulation. RSI above 50 and rising indicates upward momentum increasing.

US NDAQ 100 continues to struggle with 4,225 Fibonacci resistance but also remains under accumulation with the index steady above 4,170 and RSI holding 50. On a breakout the index could challenge its 50-day average near 4,300 or a Fibonacci level near 4,345.

US SPX 500 remains contained by resistance between 1,940 a Fibonacci level and its 50-day average near 1,945. Support rises toward 1,925 from 1,900.Next resistance on a breakout near 1,975. RSI above 50 and rising signals upward momentum increasing.

Germany 30 has paused in the 9,410 to 9,520 range around 9,500 on the index and 50 on the RSI. A 9,360 to 9,600 sideways range appears to be emerging where it could consolidate recent advances at a higher level.

UK 100 is hanging around between 5,960 and 5,980 within a channel between 5,910 and 6,040. The direction it breaks out of this range may indicate if a new uptrend is starting or the broader downtrend is resuming. RSI steady above 50 indicates upward momentum still building.

Commodities

Gold has bounced up off of trend support near $1,208 into the $1,2210 to $1,226 area RSI suggests upward momentum slowing while a symmetrical triangle indicates a period of consolidation within an ongoing uptrend.

Crude Oil WTI held $30.00 through the day but has given way following the US close and API report dropping back under $30.00 and on toward the $29.20 to $29.40 area with next potential support near $28.65 then $28.25.

FX

US Dollar Index has levelled off near 97.50 but the bigger test today appears to be RSI at 50 where a breakout would signal an upturn but a failure would confirm its downtrend continues. Next resistance near 98.15 with next support in the 96.60 to 96.70 area.

EURUSD is sitting on $1.1000 having found some support near $1.0990 with more possible near $1.0965 and Fibonacci level near the 50-day average. Resistance in place at the 200-day near $1.1035 then the $1.1111 round number and retracement test.

GBPUSD is breaking down today having tried to stabilize above $1.4080 but failed and dropping back toward $1.4020 with a test of $1.4000 possible. New low on trend has not been confirmed by the RSI a positive divergence suggesting downward pressure starting to weaken but further declines remain possible.

NZDUSD remains stuck in a sideways channel between $0.6560 and $0.6730 having slumped back toward $0.6670 and a test of its 50 and 200-day averages as support. RSI holding 50 indicates underlying uptrend intact.

AUDUSD has met some resistance near $0.7260 with more possible near its 200-day average and $0.7300. Support coming in at a higher low near $0.7200 and RSI above 50 and rising suggests a small correction underway within an ongoing uptrend.

USDCNH has turned upward again, clearing 6.5325 a Fibonacci level and completing an ascending triangle base. RSI climbing toward 50 also suggests recent downtrend ending. Next upside resistance near 6.5470 then 6.5650. Support rises toward 6.5325 from 6.5200.

USDJPY is back under distribution, with resistance falling toward 113.00 and the pair dropping into the 111.90 to 112.30 area with next support at the recent low near 111.00 where a retest could complete a double bottom. RSI nearing oversold levels again so a bounce possible at some point.

EURJPY keeps falling but be careful as RSI is getting really oversold and a snap back bounce possible. Pair has dropped into the 123.10 to 123.70 area nearing 122.90 measured support. Next resistance near 124.45.

CADJPY is rolling over again, falling away from 82.45 a Fibonacci level and 50 on the RSI confirming the start of another downswing. The pair has dropped into the 81.30 to 81.60 area with next support possible near 80.20.

USDSGD is sending mixed signals. Trading between $1.4000 and $1.4100 looks like a pause within a downtrend but RSI advancing on 50 suggests an upturn pending. Next resistance at the 50-day average near $1.4180 with downside channel support near $1.3890.


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