Yesterday’s initial burst of enthusiasm faded in the North American session and indices have been giving back some of their gains. Recent lows have been holding and a number of markets remain oversold which suggests the worst of the recent selloff may be over, but the bears haven’t been defeated so markets may not be out of the woods yet either.
Asia Pacific Indices
Australia 200 ran into resistance near 4,950, short of the 5,000 round number and has drifted back toward 4,850 but remains above support near 4,840 followed by 4,790, suggesting it could be starting to build a base. .
Japan 225 has fallen back under 17,000 after running into resistance near 17,290 but remains in an upswing above 16,750 support. RSI still oversold suggests continued potential for a bounce after the current retrenchment runs its course.
Hong Kong 50 appears to be starting to form a trading channel between 19,000 and 20,000 range. Although it recently dropped back from near 19,700 toward 19,450, RSI remains oversold indicating further trading bouncing still possible.
India 50 has rallied up off of 7,355 into the 7,400 to 7,460 zone but it remaisn in an downtr3end below 7,600 resistance.
North American and European Indices
US 30 has turned downward once giving up all its early gains after peaking near 16,290, dropping right through the 16,030 level and 16,000 round number on its way back toward 15,900 with a retest of 15,840 support looming followed by 15,695.
US NDAQ 100 has tumbled back toward 4,080 with next potential support after that near the 4,000 round number, having peaked for the day near 4,220. Resistance falls toward 4.125 from 4,165.
US SPX 500 regained 1,900 but failed to hold it, dropping back toward 1,870 indicating that even though the market remains oversold, the bears haven’t given up their grip on direction. Nest support possible near 1,855.
Germany 30’s rebound ran out of gas near 9,740 a lower high with the index backsliding toward 9,550 but it remains in an upswing of higher lows above 9,450. RSI stil suggests downward pressure easing.
UK 100 faltered at a lower high near 5,915 well short of the 6,000 round number, then falling back under 5,855 on its way toward 5,810. As long as it trades above 7,765 a double bottom remains in place, which a positive RSI divergence confirms downward momentum is past its peak.
Gold continues to bounce around $1,086 a Fibonacci level and former base pattern resistance, trading between $1,084 and $1,092. RSI holding 50 confirms underlying uptrend still intact through the current consolidation phase.
Crude Oil WTI took a run at the $30.00 round number but failed to get through and has since been pounded back to the $28.20 level where it started. RSI remains really oversold but bulls still don’t have any conviction. Next measured support on a breakdown near $26.40, initial resistance falls toward $28.60.
US Dollar Index has picked up off 99.00 and appears to be advancing on the high end of its 98.00 to 99.60 trading channel with significant resistance in place near th 100.00 level. RSI confirms slight upward momentum.
EURUSD continues to trend sideways in the $1.0800 to $1.1000 range trading today between $1.0870 and $1.0940 after a recent rally faltered near $1.0970 again.
NZDUSD is trying to rebound but so far bullish advances have been getting rejected at the $0.6500 round number. RSI upturn off 30 suggests downward pressure weakening. Support rises toward $0.6480 with next potential resistance near $0.6590.
AUDUSD continues to build a base between $0.6800 and $0.7000 successfully testing $0.6900 as higher support with initial resistance near $0.6940. RSI suggests downward pressure levelling off. Next resistance on a breakout possible in the $0.7040 to $0.7080 area.
USDCNH has levelled off between 6.5900 and 6.6090 a Fibonacci level. RSI nearing 50 suggests overbought conditions have eased and we may see soon if momentum is pausing or turning downward. Next support and resistance possible near 6.5615 and 6.6285.
USDJPY continues to level off between 116.35 and 118.35 trading more recently between 117.30 and 117.50 with next resistance near 117.90 while pausing to work off an oversold RSI.
EURJPY is holding steady between 128.10 and 128.50 while a rising RSI indicates a trading bounce underway. A symmetrical triangle forming between 126.75 and 129.15 suggests a pause underway within an ongoing downtrend.
CADJPY is still holding above the 80.00 round number trading between 80.50 and 81.20. RSI really oversold so we could still get a bounce at some point.
USDSGD is starting to roll over with the pair falling away from $1.4400 toward $1.4360 with next support possible near $1.4300 then $1.4200. RSI falling away from 70 confirms uptrend weakening.