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Chart Signals: Indices pause near resistance levels, JPY gain causes Japan 225 pain

Chart Signals: Indices pause near resistance levels, JPY gain causes Japan 225 pain

A number of major indices including the US 30 and Australia 200 have paused after recent rallies ran into channel and Fibonacci resistance. Declines have been moderate, however, indicating Friday’s weakness was normal base building and not the start of new downswings (at least not yet). Gold and oil also continue to consolidate recent moves. JPY remains strong which has kept pressure on the Japan 225.

Asia Pacific indices

Australia 200 ran into resistance at 5,000 where a round number and Fibonacci test converge and has been trading just below it in the 4,940 to 4,970 range trying to decide whether to resume its downtrend or to break out. RSI holding above 50 suggests momentum still turning upward.

Hong Kong 50 as slipped back from 19,290 toward 19,150 but at the same time continues to hold above 19,000 round number and 19,090 Fibonacci support. Resistance on a breakout possible near 19,450. RSI sitting on 50 indicates sideways momentum within a wide range.

India 50 keeps trying to carve out a base, trading in the 7,150 to 7,230 area with support rising toward 7,190. An ascending triangle base continues to form with next resistance on a breakout possible near 7,420.

Japan 225 has slipped back under 16,000 which it needs to retake soon to call off the start of a new downleg. Next resistance near 16,185 if successful. RSI rolling over again suggests a rebound could fail and its broader downtrend resume with next potential support near 15,620 then 15,470.

North American and European Indices

US 30 was unable to hold above 16,450 Fibonacci and channel resistance and has dropped back toward the 16,350 to 16,390 area climbing into the close. Next potential support near 16,240 and next resistance near 16,560.  RSI levelling off near 50 suggests momentum moving sideways.

US NDAQ 100 dropped back after faltering near 4,225 Fibonacci resistance, but stabilized in the 4,130 to 4,170 range with next support possible near 4,100 also a Fibonacci test.

US SPX 500 been bouncing around between 1,910 and 1,918 having fallen away from 1,940 Fibonacci resistance. Next potential support near 1,900. RSI holding 50 suggests this remains a trading correction within an emerging uptrend.

Germany 30 is coming off an inside consolidation day, still holding above 9,345 Fibonacci support but stuck below  resistance near 9,470 then 9,550. RSI faltering near 50 which it needs to clear to signal the start of an uptrend; a failure could indicate trading bounce within a broader downtrend ending.

UK 100 has slipped back under 6,000 and 5,960 a Fibonacci level to indicate a downswing underway. A lower high for the index and RSI peaking near 60 again suggest its broader downtrend continues. Initial support near 5,920 then 5,900 and 5,855.

Commodities

Gold is bouncing around between $1,220 and $1,234 as it digests last week’s rally up from $1,200 to $1,240. RSI overbought again suggests we could see more significant swings in the near term. Higher lows and lower highs suggest a symmetrical consolidation triangle starting to form.

Crude Oil WTI is holding just below $30.00 as support moves up toward $29.70 as it continues to trade within last Wednesday’s big $28.60 to $31.30 range. This along with RSI sitting on 50 indicates sideways consolidation and base building.

FX

US Dollar Index remains stuck below 97.00 and appears to be rolling over again suggesting the recent bounce has ended and a new downswing starting with next support near 96.15 then 95.70 near previous lows.

EURUSD held its 200-day average near $1.1060 and 50 on the RSI keeping its underlying uptrend intact and has rallied back up to the $1.1111 round number and Fibonacci level with next potential resistance near $1.1200 then $1.1255 on a rebound.

NZDUSD successfully retested $0.6560 and continues to bounce around between there and $0.6730 recently trading near $0.6630. RSI steady near 50 confirms sideways trend.

AUDUSD didn’t stay down for very long, bouncing back up toward $0.7150 after successfully retesting $0.7075 support. RSI lifting up off of 50 confirms upward momentum still increasing through this correction. Next rebound resistance possible near $0.7185 then $0.7245.

USDCNH remains stuck below 6.5325 which has become resistance, trading near 6.5250 with next potential support near 6.5100 then the 6.5000 round number. RSI suggests downward momentum starting to level off.

USDJPY is turning downward again, falling below 113.00 into the lower half of a 111.00 to 115.00 trading channel. RSI confirms downward momentum building again. Recent trading in the 112.30 to 112.70 range.

EURJPY has broken down below 126.20 to signal the start of a new down leg. It held 125.00 support for now but only managed to bounce back toward 125.40. Should support in this area fail, a measured 124.00 could be tested. RSI not confirming the new low sets up a positive divergence which suggests downward momentum may be peaking.

CADJPY is breaking down again, taking out 82.45 a Fibonacci level and falling into the 81.60 to 81.80 area with next potential support in the 80.00 to 80.30 area. RSI faltering at 50 and turning down again indicates downward momentum intact.

USDSGD keeps creeping higher with support moving up toward $1.4045 from $1.4000 while RSI gaining on 50 suggests downward pressure weakening. Next potential resistance near $1.4120 then the 50-day average near $1.4180.


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