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Chart Signals: Indices, Commodities and Resource Dollars rally as risk-on mode returns

Chart Signals: Indices, Commodities and Resource Dollars rally as risk-on mode returns

Capital returned to risk markets in a big way today with US and European indices rallying along with their Asia Pacific counterparts. Commodities like crude oil and copper have also been gaining along with resource dollars. On the other hand, defensive plays like the US Dollar Index, gold and JPY have gone into retreat as capital moves back out toward more aggressive positions.

Asia Pacific Indices

Australia 200 is breaking out of a month-long downtrend, regaining the 5,000 round number to signal the start of a new upswing that would be confirmed by RSI retaking 50. Next upside tests possible near 5,055 then 5,100.

Japan 225 is turning back upward, clearing the 16,000 round number, then 16,055 a Fibonacci level and advancing on 16,140 with next potential resistance near 16,275 and then its 50-day average near 16,475. RSI advancing on 50 indicates downward pressure weakening and an upturn pending.

Hong Kong 50 has popped up from near 20,460 through 20,575 a Fibonacci level and on toward 20,625 with next potential resistance near 20,710 then 20,850.

India 50 continues to rally up off 7,515 Fibonacci support with RSI climbing up off 50 confirming upward momentum increasing. The index has advanced toward 7,700 with next resistance looming near 7,755 then 7,820 and 7,950 on trend.

North American and European Indices

US 30 continues to consolidate recent gains in the 17,455 to 17,855 range. It dropped back from near 17,740 toward 17,530 yesterday afternoon but has since bounced back up into the 17,690 to 17,730 area.

US NDAQ 100 appears to be rolling over, retesting 4,500 as lower, round number and Fibonacci resistance following a drop down toward 4,430 and rebound. So far this still appears to be a normal consolidation phase within an ongoing uptrend with next upward resistance near 4,520 then 4,550. .

US SPX 500 has bounced back up toward 2,060 from a successful retest of support near 2,040. RSI holding 50 confirms underlying uptrend remains intact. Upside resistance remains in place near 2,065 then 2,080.

UK 100 is breaking out today, clearing a big hurdle at its 50-day average near 6,225 and rallying toward 6,255 with next potential resistance near 6,310 then 6,445 both previous highs. RSI above 50 and rising indicates upward momentum increasing.

Germany 30 remains under accumulation climbing from near 9,620 toward 9,800 following a successful test of shoulder support that keeps a head and shoulders base still building for now. RSI regaining 50 confirms an upturn in momentum.


Gold looked great driving up toward $1,264 but its failure there and retreat back toward $1,254 looks ominous as it appears to have completed the right shoulder of a head and shoulders top with the left shoulder in February and the head in March. Initial support appears near $1,228 a Fibonacci level with the neckline near $1,208.

Crude Oil WTI broke out over $40.90 to signal the start of a new uptrend but bearish technical signal have started to emerge. Although it remains above its breakout point so far, it failed to hold above $41.30 a Fibonacci level falling from near $41.80 back toward $41.10. Also an overbought RSI and negative divergence suggest upward momentum may have passed its peak. Should $40.90 fail, next support may appear back near the $40.00 round number.

Copper has resumed its uptrend rallying up from a higher low near $2.06 up through $2.10 and on toward the $2.15 to $2.17 range where it has been testing its 50-day average and a Fibonacci level. Next upside resistance possible at the 200-day average near $2.24.


US Dollar Index continues to retreat, retesting its 94.00 breakdown point as new resistance following a drop down toward 93.60, confirming the start of a new downleg with next measured support possible in the 92.65 to 93.00 area. Oversold RSI suggests a short term trading bounce possible, perhaps back up toward 94.40.

EURUSD is coming off a bearish engulfing day that saw it trade up toward $1.1475 and approach $1.1500 round number resistance than be knocked back toward $1.1350 before stabilizing near $1.1400. RSI rolling over and falling under 70 indicates upward momentum fading.

NZDUSD continues to trend upward in a rising channel of higher highs and higher lows  with support rising toward $0.6870 and the index advancing on $0.6920 with next resistance possible near $0.6970 then the $0.7000 round number.

AUDUSD has bounced up from near $0.7620 toward $0.7690, climbing within a $0.7500 to $0.7740 trading range where it has been consolidating recent gains. RSI bouncing up off 50 confirms its underlying uptrend remains intact.

USDCNH is holding steady, sitting just below 6.4795 a Fibonacci level as it bounces around between 6.4570 and 6.5000. higher lows in the RSI indicate downward pressure fading.

USDSGD is sending mixed signals. A descending triangle forming between $1.3600 and $1.3400 suggests a pause underway within an ongoing downtrend but a positive RSI divergence suggests downward pressure weakening and base building possible. Recently the pair fall from near $1.3490 toward $1.3430 with next measured support on a breakdown near $1.3200.

USDJPY continues to attract support above 107.00 trading in the 108.40 to 108.80 range while starting to work off an oversold RSI. Next upside resistance on a trading bounce possible near 109.10 then the 110.00 round number.

EURJPY has levelled off in the 122.60 to 124.30 range. A higher low in the RSI suggests a double bottom may be forming with a higher low in the RSI indicating downward pressure fading and bears unable to drive the price lower for now.

CADJPY has encountered round number resistance near 85.00 in what looks like a normal pause for a rest after it rallied up from near 83.70 and regained its 50-day average near 50 on the RSI. Next upside resistance possible near 86.20, a Fibonacci level.

USDCAD has embarked on a new downleg taking out $1.2855 and diving down to test $1.2750. RSI getting oversold again so a retest of the breakdown point appears possible in the near term. Next measured support possible near $1.2625.

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