It’s been a rough day for indices with US 30 and US SPX 500 completing head and shoulders tops with Germany 30 and Australia 200 also coming under pressure. Oil started the day under pressure but showed surprising resilience in the afternoon. The USD rally moderated a bit but gold continued to tumble.
Asia Pacific Indices
Australia 200 is testing 5,300 support which has held support so far but if that gives way it could signal the start of a downswing that could test 5,185 a Fibonacci level. Resistance falls from 5,400 toward 5,335. RSI falling away from 70 suggests upward momentum fading and a trading correction starting.
Japan 225 continues to bounce around its 50-day average trading in a channel between 16,250 and 26,800 two Fibonacci levels. Higher lows indicate continued underlying support. Next resistance on a breakout possible near the 17,000 round number.
Hong Kong 50 remains in a downtrend stuck below 20,000 and falling from 19,670 toward 19,520 with next potential support near 19,490 then 19,090.
India 50 has been knocked back from 7,850 toward 7,770 but it remains in an uptrend above 7,750 support. RSI bouncing around 50 indicates sideways momentum.
North American and European Indices
US 30 retested 17,515, a 23% retracement level and the neckline of a head and shoulders top, as new resistance and confirming a breakdown. The index fell as low as 17,340 before bouncing toward 17,430 with next support after that near 17,120 where a 38% retracement and the 200-day average converge. RSI under 50 confirms downward pressure increasing.
US NDAQ 100 fell away from 4,345 back toward the bottom of a 4,280 to 4,400 sideways trading channel. RSI below 50 indicates downward momentum. Next support possible near 4,225, a Fibonacci level.
US SPX 500 is breaking down today, taking out 2,040 the neckline of a head and shoulders top and a 23% retracement level. The index dipped down to 2,027 and has retested the breakdown point as new resistance. Next downside support near 2,000 where a round number, 38% retracement and 200-day average converge.
UK 100 continues to struggle below moving average resistance in the 6,175 to 6,200 area trading today between 6,070 and 6,120 with more support in place near 6,000.
Germany 30 continues to drift downward, falling farther away from 10,000 in sinking form 9,935 toward the 9,770 to 9,830 area. Next downside support possible near 9,725 then 9,555. RSI under 50 confirms downward momentum.
Gold remains under pressure, falling from a lower high near $1,262 down toward a test of its 50-day average near $1,250. It has rebounded from $1.245 toward $1,255 but RSI breaking an uptrend line and falling under 50 signals momentum turning downward. Next potential support appears at a Fibonacci level near $1,228.
Crude Oil WTI remain well supported completing a round trip from $48.10 down to $46.70 and then back up again with the bears unable to hold off the power of underlying bullish support. RSI still overbought so we could see more choppiness. Next upside resistance near the $50.00 round number.
US Dollar Index continues to trend upward building on Wednesday’s breakout over 95.00 which has become support advancing on 95.30 with next potential resistance in the 96.00 to 96.45 area. RSI above 50 and rising confirms upward momentum increasing.
EURUSD is under pressure trading around $1.1200 a Fibonacci level in the $1.1180 to $1.1230 area with next potential support at the 200-day average near $1.1111. Falling RSI confirms downward pressure increasing.
GBPUSD spiked up earlier in the day from $1.4570 to $1.4660 but faltered short of downtrend resistance near $1.4700 and has started to roll over, sliding back toward $1.4610 following a strong UK retail sales report.
NZDUSD successfully retested $0.6700 and bounced up toward $0.6760 but RSI remains in a downtrend stuck below 50 so this could be a trading bounce. It needs to retake $0.6800 to call off its current downtrend. Next downside support at the 200-day average near $0.6645.
AUDUSD remain in free fall, carrying on down into the $0.7180 to $0.7230 and confirming the break down below its 200-day average near $0.7250. RSI steady near 30 indicates downward momentum intact with next potential support near $0.7100.
USDCNH continues to advance after successfully testing its 6.5600 breakout point as new support. The pair has rallied up toward 6.5700 with next potential resistance near 6.5770 a Fibonacci test.
USDSGD has levelled off in the $1.3780 to $1.3820 range to digest its recent rally at a higher level. Rising RSI indicates underlying upward momentum intact with next resistance possible near $1.3885.
USDJPY is testing the 110.00 round number with more resistance possible near 110.50 a Fibonacci level. RSI above 50 suggests momentum turning upward with next resistance on a breakout possible near 112.00 a previous high. Support moves up toward 109.70.
EURJPY remains under distribution, falling away from a lower high near 123.90 and tracking down below its 50-day average into the 122.90 to 123.20 area. RSI stuck under 50 confirms downtrend intact with next potential support near 121.45 the recent low.
CADJPY has slipped back toward 84.00 as it bounces around between 82.50 and 85.50. RSI under 50 suggests downward momentum.
USDCAD continues to climb, rallying toward $1.3100 as it builds on yesterday’s breakout over $1.3000. RSI approaching overbought but confirms upward momentum increasing. Next potential resistance near $1.3160 where it spiked up to intraday then $1.3200 near prior candle highs