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Chart Signals: Indices bounce as oil breaks out, big support test for AUDUSD

Chart Signals: Indices bounce as oil breaks out, big support test for AUDUSD

US 30 and US SPX 500 held neckline support today and bounced back a bit while crude oil continues to advance, breaking out to a new high on trend and confirming last week’s golden cross was for real. AUDUSD has a big test underway today at its 200-day average.

Asia Pacific Indices

Australia 200 continues to trend upward, clearing 5,335 plus 5,385 and driving on toward 5,400 with next potential resistance between 5,485 a Fibonacci level and the 5,500 round number. RSI steady above 60 confirms upward momentum intact.

Japan 225 is trading sideways between 16,275 and 16,790 two Fibonacci level and around its 50-day average near 16.620. RSI sitting on 50 confirms sideways momentum.

Hong Kong 50 bounced up off 19,600 support and took a run at 20,000 but was unable to get through on its first attempt. Support moves up toward 19,880 then 19,800 with next resistance on a breakout near 20,210 a Fibonacci level.

India 50 keeps steadily advancing, climbing up from another successful retest of 7,750 support toward 7,870 with next resistance looming near 7,935 then the 8,000 round number and 8,080 a Fibonacci test.

North American and European Indices

US 30 successfully retested support at 17,515 23% retracement of the previous uptrend and the neckline of a head and shoulder top and has rallied back up toward 17,730. Shoulder resistance in place near 17,765.

US NDAQ 100 rallied up off 4,345 a Fibonacci level to test its 200-day average near 4,400 with next resistance possible near 4,425 then 4,450. RSI inching toward 50 suggests downward pressure weakening.

US SPX 500 successfully tested support at 2,040 a 23% retracement of the previous uptrend and neckline of a head and shoulders top and has bounced back up toward 2,070 with shoulder resisance in place near 2,090.

UK 100 remains stuck below 6,200 and its moving averages although it did manage to rally up from 6,100 toward 6,180. RSI suggests downward pressure easing a bit.

Germany 30 is closed for a holiday.

Commodities

Gold tried to resume its uptrend but didn’t get very far A rally up off $1,270 faltered near $1,288 and the price then went back toward $1,272 near where it started the day suggesting gold bulls are struggling to get much traction.

Crude Oil WTI is breaking out again, clearing $46.70 which may become support and advancing on $47.50 with next potential resistance near $48.10 a Fibonacci level then the $50.00 big round number barrier. Overbought RSI suggests a pause possible at some point.

FX

US Dollar Index is consolidating Friday’s breakout from a downtrend and over 94.00 near 94.50.RSI back above 50 indicates momentum turning upward with next potential resistance near 95.00 then 96.40.

EURUSD held its 50-day average near $1.1290 and has bounced back up toward $1.1340 but it remains in a downswing below $1.1390. In a downturn next support may appears near $1.1200 a Fibonacci level.

NZDUSD continues to struggle with resistance near $0.6850 and has dropped back toward $0.6790 while RSI still under 50 confirms an emerging downtrend with next potential support near $0.6714 then the 200-day average near $0.6645.

AUDUSD successfully tested support at its 200-day average near $0.7240 and has bounced back toward $0.7300 with next potential resistance near $0.7390. RSI stabilizing near 30 suggests downward pressure levelling off, but if support fails, the next downside test may appear near $0.7185.

USDCNH has encountered some resistance near 6.5600 with more possible near 6.5770 a Fibonacci level. It has dropped back under 6.5500 with next support near 6.5430 then 6.5285 in what looks like a normal trading correction easing an overbought RSI.

USDSGD is dropping back within a $1.36345 and $1.3755 trading range where it has been consolidating recent gains. Next resistance on a breakout near $1.3880 with next support on a downturn at the 50-day average near $1.3600.

USDJPY is trending sideways between 108.50 and 109.50 trying to decide whether to try and break out of its downtrend by taking a run a 110.20 or 111.75 or to give up and fall back toward 107.75 or 105.50 support. RSI sitting on 50 suggests this could go either way.

EURJPY found support at a higher low near 122.50 and has bounced up toward 123.50 but it really needs to clear its 50-day average near 124.70 to signal the start of a new uptrend. For now RSI still under 50 suggests longer tem downtrend intact with next support possible in the 121.30 to 122.00 range.

CADJPY’s latest rally attempt has been contained by 84.55 a Fibonacci level which RSI still stuck under 50 confirms this as a trading bounce within a sideways or down trend  more resistance near 85.25 with more support in the 82.50 to 83.00 area.


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