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Chart Signals: Indices and dollars look vulnerable as USD and oil rally

USD has picked up today against most major currencies following the ECB decision, with AUD and NZD staging significant bearish failures and reversals. The prospect of a more hawkish Fed weighed on stock markets which would have been down more except for big rallies in energy stocks as WTI took off to the upside again. Australia 200 and the overbought Hong Kong 50 appear particularly vulnerable as Japan 225 has been getting some support from the Yen falling against other currencies. . 

Asia Pacific Indices

Australia 200 remains under pressure, breaking down under 5,385 which may become resistance and falling toward 5,350 before bouncing back toward 5,360. Fibonacci support possible near 5,336. RSI deeply oversold suggests a trading bounce possible at some point with next potential resistance near 5,415. 

Japan 225 successfully retested support at its 200-day average near 16,810 and has started to rebound challenging but not yet retaking the 17,000 round number with next resistance possible near 17,180. Rising RSI indicates momentum still turning increasingly upward. 

Hong Kong 50 continues to climb, taking a run at the 24,000 round number. RSI is getting quite overbought so a correction appears possible that could take the index back toward 23,685 support or 23,410 a Fibonacci level. 

North American and European Indices

US 30 continues to trend sideways bouncing around between 18,440 and 18,550 with support holding in place at its 50-day average near 18,420 then 18,360 while resistance appears near 18,635. RSI bouncing around 50 confirms sideways momentum. 

US NDAQ 100 continues to struggle with resistance near 4,845 where a triple top may now be in place. RSI stalling just short of 70 also suggests upward momentum fading and a correction possible with initial potential support in the 4,780 to 4,800 area. 

US SPX 500 has failed to clear 2,192 channel resistance again confirming a short-term double top remains in place. The pair has drifted back toward 2,180 with next potential support near 2,175 and the 50-day average near 2,165. 

UK 100 appears to be resuming its uptrend having established higher support near 6,800 and bouncing back toward the 6,850 to 6,880 area with next potential resistance near 6,890 then 6,925. RSI holding 50 confirms underlying uptrend remains intact. 

Germany 30 has come under renewed pressure diving down from near 10,800 where a double top appears to be in place for now, down toward 10,550 before bouncing back toward into the 10,650 to 10,700 zone. Additional support possible near 10,500.  


Gold has encountered some resistance near $1,350 but remains well supported above its 50-day average near $1,336 indicating a pause within an upswing. Next resistance and support possible near $1,358 and $1,324 respectively. 

Crude Oil WTI’s upswing accelerated Thursday with the price rallying up off $46.00 toward $47.50 with support rising toward $46.80 and next resistance possible near $48.15 then $48.70. RSI back above 50 indicates momentum turning upward. 


US Dollar Index is starting to bounce back testing 95.00 once again after bouncing off of 94.50 with next resistance possible at its 50-day average near 95.80. RSI holding 40 and rebounding indicates downward pressure easing and a sideways trend emerging. 

EURUSD regained $1.1300 but faltered at a lower high near $1.1325 confirming a downswing underway and dropped back into the $1.1240 to $1.1260 area with next potential support near $1.1200. A higher low in the RSI suggests downward pressure easing back. 

GBPUSD continues to consolidate recent gains near $1.3315 Fibonacci support trading between $1.3280 and $1.3330 with resistance in place in the $1.3475 to $1.3500 area and additional support possible at its 50-day average near $1.3150. 


NZDUSD ran into resistance just short of the $0.7500 round number just as the RSI reached 70 and has been knocked back toward $0.7390 kicking off a trading correction within an uptrend with next potential support near $0.7340 then $0.7300.  

AUDUSD is starting to fall back after an attempt to break out over $0.7700 failed near $0.7730. A rollover in the RSI suggests upward momentum may be peaking. 

USDSGD has regained $1.3500 and its 50-day average to signal the start of a new upswing as it bounces up off a higher low near $1.3430. RSI indicates momentum may be about to turn back up as well. Next resistance possible near $1.3560 then $1.3600. 

USDJPY remains in a downtrend but has staged a nice bounce up off of 101.00 toward 102.50 setting a higher low in the process. Currently challenging its 50-day average next potential resistance appears in the 103.50 to 104.00 zone.  A higher low in the RSI indicates downward pressure weakening. 

GBPJPY held above its 50-day average, 50 on the RSI and the 135.00 round number bringing a correction to an end and confirming its uptrend remains intact. The pair has bounced to test 136.00 a Fibonacci level with next resistance possible near 137.20 then 138.80. 

EURJPY has resumed its uptrend after a bear trap dip under its 50-day average near 114.35. The pair has rallied back above 115.00 with next potential resistance near 116.35. RSI holding 50 indicates underlying uptrend intact and starting to re-accelerate. 

CADJPY has stabilized near 79.00 and its 50-day average with RSI holding 50 confirming underlying upward momentum remains intact. Initial resistance remains in place in the 80.00 to 80.25 area near a round number and the 23% retracement of its previous downtrend. 

USDCAD has bounced up off of $1.2825 trend support into the $1.2870 to $1.2930 area with next potential resistance near $1.3000 where a round number, Fibonacci test and 50-day average converge.  

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