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Chart Signals: Increasing distribution in Indices; JPY bounces back

The trading bounce earlier this week in major indices has turned out to be pretty short lived with major markets turning back downward Thursday led lower by US indices and the Germany 30. Currency markets have been mixed with gold and the Yen showing signs of life and EUR pairs showing signs of cracking. 

Asia Pacific Indices

Australia 200 has been knocked back from 5,800 toward 5,755 but continues to hold its 200-day average. Ascending triangles in the index (below 5,830) and the RSI (below 50) continue to form through the current setback. 

Japan 225 has resumed its downtrend following a trading bounce correction. The index has turned down from 19,795 Fibonacci resistance, falling toward 19,555 with next potential support near 19.485 then 19,400. RSI rolling down from a lower high and still under 50 confirms increasing downward momentum. 

Hong Kong 50 appears to have peaked with the index falling away from a lower high near 27,605 down toward 27,235. Next potential support near 27,070, 27,000 and 26,875 a Fibonacci level. RSI falling toward 50 indicates confirmation of a downturn pending.   

North American and European Indices

US 30 has turned downward from a lower high near 22,090, breaking 22,000 and carrying on down toward 21,845. Next potential support near 21,780 a 23% retracement of the previous uptrend. RSI suggests that the recent uptrend has peaked and a top may be forming, a breakdown would confirm momentum turning downward. 

US SPX 500 is breaking down today, falling away from a lower high near 2,470 down through its 50-day average near 2,450 and on toward 2,444. RSI rolling back under 50 confirms momentum turning downward. Next potential support near 2,433 then 2,418. 

US NDAQ 100 continues to accelerate downward. The index has broken 5,900 and continued down toward 5,935. RSI turning back under 50 confirms the downturn. Next potential support at the 50-day average near 5,800 then 5,765.  

UK 100 failed to hold 7,400 and has dropped back into the lower half of a 7,290 to 7,520 trading range. RSI bouncing around 50 confirms sideways momentum. 

Germany 30 has turned downward again, falling from 12,300 down through 12,240 a Fibonacci level and on toward 12,160. RSI has levelled off just below 50. This suggests that the recent rally was a trading bounce within a bigger downtrend and may be coming to an end. Next resistance possible near 12,335 with downturn support possible near 12,090 then 12,000. 


Gold continues to trend upward with support rising toward $1,282 from $1,270 and the price near $1,286. Gold continues to approach the top of its $1,200 to $1,300 trading range with initial resistance looming near $1,290. 

WTI crude oil has paused near $47.00, to digest Wednesday’s big selloff,  having bounced up off of $46.70 a Fibonacci level. The price would need to retake $47.55 to call off its big breakdown. Next support at the 50-day average near $46.25, then the $45.00-$45.25 area. RSI back under 50 confirms momentum turning downward. 


US Dollar Index is climbing up off of 93.35 support and testing 94.00 where a breakout would complete an ascending triangle base. RSI breaking out over 50 signals momentum turning upward. Next potential resistance near 94.55 then 95.00 on a breakout. 

EURUSD tested $1.1685, the bottom of a bearish descending triangle today. Although the pair subsequently rebounded toward $1.1745, it remains vulnerable. RSI testing 50 where a break would confirm the downturn. Next potential support near $1.1595 then the 50-day average near $1.1500.  

GBPUSD is trading between $1.2840 uptrend support and its 50-day average near $1.2925, with the RSI below 50 indicating distribution. A breakdown would signal the start of a new downtrend with next support near $1.2785 a Fibonacci level, but a successful support test would indicate the longer term uptrend remains intact.  

NZDUSD is sitting on $0.7300 and appears to be settling into a consolidation range between $0.7220 and $0.7340 around $0.7275 a 38% Fibonacci retracement of its previous uptrend. RSI suggests neutral to slightly downward momentum  

AUDUSD ran into resistance near $0.7960 and has dropped back toward $0.7910 as a $0.7820 to $0.8000 trading range appears to emerge. RSI starting to bounce around 50 also suggests a sideways trend emerging. 

USDSGD continues to steadily climb with support moving up toward $1.3640 from $1.3600. RSI testing 50 from below where a breakout would confirm an upturn in momentum. Next potential resistance near $1.3730 the 50-day average.  

USDJPY is sending mixed signals. It appears to have resumed its downtrend, falling away form 111.00 while RSI remains under 50 keeping downward momentum intact. However, in the short term, it may be bouncing around 110.00 trading between 109.60 and 110.40. Next downside support near 109.00 then 108.65.

GBPJPY is breaking down today, taking out its 200-day average near 142.20 then 141.85 a Fibonacci level on its way down toward 141.25. Next potential support near 141.00 then 140.40 and 140.00. Falling RSI confirms increasing downward momentum. 

EURJPY appears to be forming a top with the pair falling from 130.00 toward 128.80 and the RSI breaking under 50 to signal momentum turning downward. Next potential support appears near 128.00 the 50-day average and previous low, followed by 126.40.

USDCAD has started to resume its downtrend with the pair falling away from $1.2750 and the RSI rolling back under 50. The pair has dropped back into the $1.2600 to $1.2640 area with next potential support near $1.2530. 

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