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Chart Signals: Gold, oil and CAD rally while indices look exhausted and vulnerable

Friday was a mixed day for trading. Major indices continued to soften in the wake of the NDAQ’s bearish key reversal Thursday. A bounce in USD faltered following a soft US GDP report, enabling gold, EUR and GBP to rebound. Meanwhile a strong Canadian GDP report ignited another rally in CAD. Crude oil continues to climb with WTI taking a run at $50.00. 

Asia Pacific indices

Australia 200 continues to trend sideways in a channel between 5,655 and 5,810 confirmed by the RSI bouncing around 50. The index has recently dropped back from 5,740 toward 5,700. 

Hong Kong 50 has paused between 27,000 and 27,155 to consolidate recent gains and work off an overbought RSI. Next measured resistance on a breakout near 27,310. Next potential support in a deeper retreat near 26,690 a 23% retracement of the recent rally. 

Japan 225 has slipped back under 20,000 breaking its 50-day average while RSI slipping under 50 confirms momentum starting to turn downward. Overall, the index continues to swing back and forth between 19,759 and 20,295.  

North American and European Indices

US 30 has bounced up toward 21,810 from 21,770 but remains short of 21,900 measured resistance. So far this looks like a pause within an uptrend holding above 21,695 a recent breakout point where a failure of support would signal a potentially deeper downturn starting. 

US SPX 500 is showing signs of rolling over both in the index and the RSI. The index failed to hold above 2,480 Thursday and has dropped back under 2,470 with next potential support near 2,458, 2,450 and the 50-day average near 2,436. 

US NDAQ 100 is breaking down in a big way. Following a failure at 6,000 and a bearish key reversal day, the index has dropped toward 5,900. Next potential support near 5,770. RSI diving toward 50 indicates a correction underway and a downturn in momentum pending. 

UK 100 is starting to slide within a 7,300 to 7,600 trading range, recently peaking at a lower high near 7,490 and falling back under 7,400. RSI slipping back under 50 confirms a downswing underway with next potential support near 7,360 then the channel bottom. 

Germany 30 continues to accelerate downward after completing a head and shoulders top. The old 12,225 neckline, also a Fibonacci level, has become resistance and the index has dropped toward 12,165 with next potential support near 12,090 then 12,000. Falling RSI confirms increasing downward pressure.  


Gold remains under accumulation with support rising toward $1,265 and the price clearing $1,270. Rising RSI confirms increasing upward momentum. Next potential resistance near $1,278, $1,294 and $1,300 on trend. 

WTI crude oil broke out again Friday, clearing its 200-day average near $49.25 and taking a run at resistance in the $49.75 to $50.00 area near a Fibonacci test and a round number. RSI above 50 and rising confirms upward momentum still increasing. 


US Dollar Index has levelled off in the 93.00 to 94.00 area, recently sliding from 93.50 toward 93.10. An oversold RSI suggests potential for a pause in the near term and it may be starting to build a base. Next resistance on a breakout possible near the 95.00 round number with next measured support near 92.00. 

EURUSD spent Friday as an inside day digesting a key reversal Thursday that saw the pair spike up toward $1.1780 then fall back toward $1.1635. The pair remains in an uptrend of lower highs but an overbought RSI suggests potential for a bigger correction with next potential support near $1.1600. Next measured resistance on a breakout possible near $1.1960. 

GBPUSD shrugged off a setback by taking another run at Fibonacci resistance near $1.3150. It remains in an uptrend of higher lows with support moving up toward $1.3080 from $1.3000. RSI holding well above 50 confirms underlying accumulation.  

NZDUSD’s uptrend has paused for a rest and to work off an overbought RSI near $0.7500, trading between $0.7460 and $0.7560. 

AUDUSD continues to level off between $0.7900 and $0.8000 with the recent spike up toward $0.8070 and subsequent failure to hold on to its gains looking like a near-term buying climax. A head and shoulders top forming in an overbought RSI suggests the recent rally may have been overdone, upward momentum may be peaking and a correction back toward $0.7870 looks possible. 

USDSGD has paused between $1.3545 and $1.3615 while working off an oversold RSI but it remains under distribution in a downtrend of lower highs with next potential support near the $1.3500 round number. 

USDJPY has turned downward once again, falling to retest 110.60 Fibonacci support while resistance falls toward 111.20. RSI under 50 and dropping confirms increasing downward pressure. Next potential support on a breakdown near the 110.00 round number then 109.35.

GBPJPY appears to be settling into a 144.00 to 146.50 sideways range recently testing 145.00 initial support. RSI bouncing around 50 confirms sideways momentum. 

EURJPY has paused for a rest between 128.40 and 130.70, recently trading near 130.00. The formation of an ascending triangle indicates that even while the pair is working off an overbought RSI, underlying accumulation continues. 

USDCAD turned back downward Friday, diving from $1.2570 down through $1.2500 and on toward $1.2440. Support remains in place near $1.2400 but if that fails, next support may appear near a measured $1.2230. RSI remains oversold but is also still confirming downward momentum. 

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