Although US markets finished last week with a very late rally, signs of capital flowing out of US stocks and USD and back into defensive havens like gold and JPY continue to emerge. JPY has broken out against EUR which appears to be under particular pressure while SGD advances and AUD and NZD test resistance.
Asia Pacific indices
Australia 200 continues to roll over, falling away form 5,800 and a double top toward 5,730. Next potential support near 5,700 the 50-day average then 5,600 the bottom of a trading channel. RSI testing 50 where a break would confirm a downturn in momentum.
Hong Kong 50 is starting to break down, falling back under 24,000 toward 23,915. Next support possible near 23,780 then 23,600. RSI breaking under 70 confirms upward momentum has peaked and a correction starting.
Japan 225 continues to trend sideways with a symmetrical triangle holding above 19,000. RSI bouncing around 50 confirms sideways trend. Recent trading between 19,090 and 19,170 with more resistance possible at the 50-day average near 19,265.
North American and European indices
US 30 has dropped back under 20,800 and appears to be in the process of completing a bearish Evening Star candle pattern. The index has dropped toward the 20,720 before a late rebound to retest 20,800 as resistance. Next potential support near 20,650 then 20,600. RSI overbought and rolling over suggests upward momentum has peaked and a correction may be starting.
US SPX 500 is retesting 2,366 following a late pop up from 2,356 where it spent most of Friday. RSI overbought and rolling over indicates a correction pending with next potential support near 2,336 then 2,320. Next upside resistance near a measured 2,376.
US NDAQ 100 remains under pressure, continuing the decline that started Thursday. The index has dropped from 5,355 bouncing around between 5,300 and 5,345. RSI falling under 70 from really overbought signals a correction starting. Next potential support near 5,275 then 5,235.
US Small Cap 2000 continues to fall away from 1,400 confirming a failed breakout attempt and index peak. Dropping back into the 1,385 to 1,395 area, next potential support appears near 1,373 the 50-day average then 1,345 a channel bottom. RSI testing 50 where a breakdown would confirm a downturn in momentum.
UK 100 appears to have completed a double top just above 7,300 and has started to roll downward bouncing around between 7,270 and 7,210. Initial support appears in the 7,180 to 7,200 area where the 50-day average, a Fibonacci level and round number cluster then 7,100 a channel bottom. RSI falling under 50 confirms momentum turning downward.
Germany 30 has turned decisively downward with its fall away from 12,000 accelerating as it dives from 11,920 toward 11,835 Next potential support near 11,720 then the 50-day average near 11,615. RSI diving toward 50 indicates a downturn in momentum pending.
Gold is breaking out again today, blasting through a Fibonacci cluster, clearing $1,250 and $1,255 and advancing on $1,258 with next potential resistance near $1,264 and the 200-day average then $1,278. RSI nearing overbought territory suggests potential for a pause to consolidate gains at some point.
Crude Oil WTI remains unable to hold above $54.00, slipping back toward $53.65 from a lower high near $54.20. RSI indicates broader sideways momentum continues. Next support possible near $53.00 with next resistance near $54.70.
US Dollar Index is still sliding away from its 50-day average, falling into the 100.60 to 101.10 area with next potential support near 100.40 then 100.00. RSI slipping back under 50 confirms momentum downturn.
EURUSD remains under pressure, an attempt to retake the 50-day average near $1.0610 failed. The pair has dropped back toward $1.0560 with next support still in place near $1.0500. RSI under 50 and falling indicates continuing distribution.
GBPUSD was unable to hold above $1.2500 and dropped back toward $1.2460 but it still remains above $1.2410 and its 50-day average. RSI holding 50 indicates underlying uptrend still intact for now. Next support near $1.2360 with next resistance near $1.2575.
NZDUSD is trending sideways above its 200-day average near $0.7140, but is struggling with resistance near $0.7240. RSI bouncing around 50 indicates sideways momentum. Next potential resistance near $0.7310.
AUDUSD is sending mixed signals. Higher lows for the pair indicate accumulation, but lower highs in the RSI indicate upward momentum slowing as the pair approaches $0.7725 resistance. Initial support has moved up toward $0.7655 with next resistance possible near $0.7780.
USDSGD continues to trend downward, with resistance falling toward $1.4085 its recent breakdown point and a Fibonacci level. The pair has been trading between $1.4020 and $1.4060 with next support possible near $1.4000 then $1.3945. Falling RSI confirms downward momentum accelerating.
USDJPY remains under distribution, breaking down through 112.35 a Fibonacci level and trending toward 112.20 with next potential support on trend near 111.50 previous lows then 111.25 a Fibonacci test. RSI under 50 and falling confirms downward momentum accelerating.
GBPJPY failed to get above 142.25 and has been pounded back under 140.00 toward 139.75. It continues to hold above its 200-day average near 139.00. RSI faltering near 50 and falling indicates momentum turning downward.
EURJPY broke down Friday, taking out 119.00 and falling toward 118.45 with next potential support near 117.50. RSI under 50 and falling indicates downward momentum accelerating.
USDCAD has stabilized near $1.3100 holding below its 200-day average near $1.3145 and near the middle of an emerging $1.3000 to $1.3200 sideways range. RSI near 50 confirms neutral trend.
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