We’re seeing a big rotation of capital today out of stocks and back into defensive havens like gold and JPY. JPY is up big not only against USD but also EUR and CAD. Indices, meanwhile are getting hammered, they appear to be close to selling climaxes but we could still see retests of the lows set last month or last summer. The US NDAQ100 has been holding on its retest so far but hasn’t bounced back very far either.
Asia Pacific Indices
Japan 225 failed to hold above 17,000 on a rally attempt and has been slammed back down under 16,500 and on toward 16,220 with a retest of the 16,000 round number looking possible. Initial resistance on a bounce in the 16,380 to 16,420 zone.
Hong Kong 50 finished last week near 19,100 within an 18,610 to 19,500 Fibonacci trading channel.
India 50 failed to retake 7,515 on the index and 50 on the RSI confirming an ongoing downtrend then saw the bottom fall out from under it as it dove down toward 7,340 to retest support with its next test near 7,225 should that fail.
North American and European Indices
US 30 has broken down again, falling through 16,000 to 16,030 area between a round number and Fibonacci level where support failed to hold and dropping into the 15,810 to 15,850 area. RSI rolling down from 50 indicates downward momentum increasing again. Net potential support near 15,710.
US NDAQ 100 is breaking down today, taking out the 4,000 round number and its January low falling toward 3,940 and approaching its 2015 low near 3,900. RSI oversold and a positive divergence emerging suggest downward momentum may be peaking. If support fails here, 3,800 of the Sept 2014 low near 3,705 could be tested.
US SPX 500 has broken short-term uptrend support and rolled over, with increasing downward momentum confirmed by a falling RSI. This index has broken 1,855 which may become resistance and has fallen toward 1,830 with next potential support near 1,815.
Germany 30 is breaking down again, failing to hold 9,000 round number support and dropping toward 8,930 with next potential support near 8,853 then 8,660. RSI nearing oversold, so a pause of bounce appears possible at some point.
UK 100 is under pressure again this morning breaking 5,855 and diving down into the 5,660 to 5,720 area. RSI under 50 and testing uptrend support indicates the broader downtrend may be reasserting itself with next support possible near 5,665 then 5,600 the January low.
Gold is breaking out again today, clearing $1,178 and rallying toward $1,200 where it has encountered some resistance. Initial support rises toward $1,194 from $1.190. RSI really overbought suggests potential for a significant downward correction perhaps to retest $1,172 or $1155 Fibonacci support some time.
Crude Oil WTI is under pressure again today, breaking $30.00 and falling toward $29.20 where it has stabilized with resistance falling toward $29.70. Next support possible near $28.75 followed by $28.25. RSI just under but bouncing around 50 suggests a downdraft underway within an sideways trend.
US Dollar Index has levelled off in the 96.25 to 97.50 range in what so far looks like a consolidation within an emerging downtrend. RSI bouncing off 30 indicates downward pressure easing for the moment. Next resistance possible near 98.00.
EURUSD has dropped back in a normal trading correction working off an overbought RSI but has been holding $1.1111 a round number and Fibonacci level with higher support above its 200-day average indicating continued underlying support. The pair has bounced back toward $1.1200 with next resistance in place near $1.1255.
NZDUSD has found some support at a higher low near $0.6600. RSI has been holding 50 as well, indicating that its underlying uptrend remains intact through the recent correction down from $0.6730. Initial resistance near $0.6640 with next support near $0.6550 a recent breakout point.
AUDUSD is struggling between $0.7080 and its 50-day average near $0.7140. RSI rolling back to 50 also suggests recent bounce fading and a downturn pending. Next potential support near $0.7000 then $0.6900.
USDCNH continue to stabilize above its 50-day average near 6.6650, recently trading between 6,.5770 and 6.5840. RSI slipping under 50 suggests momentum turning downward with next potential support near 6.54325 a Fibonacci level.
USDJPY is breaking down in a big way today. I has taking out 116.00 to confirm the start of a new downtrend falling toward the 115.20 to 115.80 area with next potential support near 115.00 then 113.80. Falling RSI indicates downward pressure increasing.
EURJPY is breaking down today, taking out 130.00 and 50 on the RSI to signal another downturn from a lower high within a downtrend. Next potential support appears near 128.80 then the December low near 126.20.
CADJPY has been pounded down from near 84.50 toward 82.45 both Fibonacci retracement levels with the lower one holding for now. Next potential support near 81.00 should that fail. RSI back under 50 and falling indicates downward pressure increasing once again.
USDSGD failed to get back above $1.4100 retesting former trend support as new resistance and confirming its recent breakdown. It has turned lower again toward $1.4040 with next support near $1.4000 then $1.3890 the 200-day average.