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Chart Signals: Double bottom tests underway

Chart Signals: Double bottom tests underway

A number of markets including the NDAQ 100, and WTI crude oil are retesting their January lows which could become a key turning point either creating double bottoms or starting new down legs.  Defensive plays like gold and JPY are looking a bit overextended and could be vulnerable to a trading reversal. Indices have been finding support in the US afternoon and have started to rebound.


Asia Pacific Indices

Australia 200 dipped down to 4,790 and has bounced back up toward 4,840 which may set an encouraging higher low but it still needs to shrug off falling RSI momentum. Next upside tests near 4,915 then 5,000 with more support in place near 4,760.

Japan 225 is approaching a key test of support near 15,775 the January low which has held so far potentially creating a double bottom. The index has bounced up from 15,865 toward 16,100 and needs to hold 16,000 to indicate this is more than another dead cat bounce.

Hong Kong 50 is bouncing around in a wide channel between recent lows near 18,600 and 19,485 a 23% retracement of its previous downtrend.  The index has drifted back from 19,330 toward 19,170 with support emerging near 19,090 then 19,000.

India 50 has been bouncing around between 7,270 and 7,330 trying to establish support at a higher low. RSI under 50 but suggests momentum starting to trend sideways.


North American and European Indices

US 30 tried to bounce back up through the 16,000-16,030 zone peeking up toward 16,075 before spending the day bouncing around between 15,860 and 16,020. The confirmation of old support as new resistance and RSI falling away from 50 suggests continued downward pressure.

US NDAQ 100 is having an inside day trading mainly between 3,930 and 3,980. So far it’s holding 3,900 which would complete a double bottom but it needs to retake 4,000 to signal an upturn. Oversold RSI and a positive divergence suggest potential for a bounce.

US SPX 500 is having an inside day trading near 1,845 above yesterday’s low near 1,830 and the January low near 1,815 and below 1,855 resistance. RSI sending mixed signals while pointing downward its not as oversold as last month, suggesting downward momentum may be nearing its limits.

Germany 30 remains under pressure, unable to regain 9,000 and call off yesterday’s breakdown and then falling into the 8,790 to 8,950 zone. RSI is oversold suggesting potential for a bounce but so far bounces have  been unable to get very far.

UK 100 is retesting its January low near 5,600 which could end in a double bottom or the start of a new downleg. RSI suggests downward pressure increasing with next potential support near the 5,500 round number.


Gold has paused in the $1,185 to $1,200 just below round number resistance with support rising toward $1,192 through the day. RSI still really overbought so it remains vulnerable to a correction, perhaps back toward $1,175.

Crude Oil WTI failed to retake $30.00 but failed to do so indicating continued resistance. It resumed its downtrend falling through last week’s low near $27.75 and on toward $27.40 to $28.00. RSI falling away from 50 suggests downward pressure increasing again with a retest of $26.60 possible that could end in a new downleg starting or a double bottom.

Crude Oil Brent is testing $30.00 having broken $31.40 previous support. RSI falling away from 50 indicates downward pressure growing that could push Brent back toward a retest of its January low near $27.25.


US Dollar Index has dropped into the lower half of a 96.25 to 97.50 trading range as it digests last week’s selloff with next potential support on a breakdown near 95.00 where a round number and measured move converge.

EURUSD is breaking out today, clearing the top of a $1.1111 to $1.1255 Fibonacci trading channel which may become support and driving on toward $1.1340 before levelling off near $1.1300 a Fibonacci level. RSI getting overbought suggests potential for a pause.

NZDUSD is on the rebound having successfully retested its $0.6560 breakout point as new support while RSI holding 50 confirms upward momentum intact. Currently near $0.6640 next potential resistance appears near $0.6670 then $0.6730.

AUDUSD ran into resistance near $0.7100 short of its 50-day average near $0.7125 and has dropped back into the $0.7050 to $0.7070 area above the $0.7000 round number. RSI sitting on 50 indicates momentum shifting sideways.

USDCNH is holding steady just above its 50-day average near 6.5620 with initial resistance near 6.5760 and next support near 6.5325 a 38% retracement of the recent uptrend. RSI falling under 50 indicates momentum turning downward.

USDJPY continues to plunge with a new downleg underway having retested the 116,15 breakdown point as new resistance. Currently trading between 114.40 and 115.40 with next support near 113.70. A positive RSI divergence suggests downward pressure may be nearing its limits with a bounce possible.

EURJPY is bouncing around between 128.20 and 130.30 trading recently near 129.70 where a doji candle combined with RSI sitting on 50 suggests a balance between bulls and bears.

CADJPY has been bouncing around between 81.70 and 83.50 around 82.50 a Fibonacci level. RSI falling away from 50 indicates downward correction may not be over yet.

USDSGD continues to turn downward breaking $1.4000 and testing $1.3950 with next potential support at the 200-day average near $1.3890. RSI indicates downward momentum increasing.

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