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Chart Signals: Dollars and indices slide, golden crosses fail as USD and JPY rally

Chart Signals: Dollars and indices slide, golden crosses fail as USD and JPY rally

We may be seeing the start of another movement of capital out of risk markets and back into defensive havens. Indices around the world have gone into reverse with a head and shoulders top forming in US SPX 500. Meanwhile, golden cross attempts in UK 100 and copper appear to be failing although WTI was a success. US and JPY have picked up putting AUD, NZD, CNH, SGD, CAD and other currencies back on their hind legs.

Asia Pacific indices

Australia 200 was unable to hold 5,400 last week and has started to backslide with RSI falling away from 70 indicating a trading correction getting underway. Currently testing 5,300 with next support after that possible near 5,185 a Fibonacci level.

Hong Kong 50 keeps rolling downward diving toward 19,700 a Fibonacci level having broken the 20,000 round number last week. RSI oversold so a pause possible but should the downtrend continue, next potential support appears in the 19,000 to 19,100 area between a round number and Fibonacci test.

India 50 has a bit of a setback falling from 7,910 toward the 7,770 to 7,810 zone but it remains in an uptrend above 7,750 for the index and 50 on the RSI. Next upside resistance in the 8,000 to 8,080 zone.

Japan 225 ran into Fibonacci resistance near 16 820 and has rolled over dropping back under its 50-day average near 16,640 and diving through 16,500 on its way toward 16,370. Next potential support near 16,250 and 16,055 both Fibonacci levels. RSI failing at 50 indicates broader downtrend isn’t over yet.

North American and European Indices

US 30 continues to drift lower with resistance falling toward 17,735 and the index dropping into the 17,515 to 17,550 area to complete a 23% retracement of its previous uptrend. RSI under 50 signals momentum turning downward with next potential support near 17,500 then 17,430.

US NDAQ 100 is trading just below 4,345 a Fibonacci level, near the middle of a trading channel between 4,280 and the 200-day moving average near 4,400. RSI under 50 indicates a broader downtrend still intact.

US SPX 500 continues to fall away from 2,080 confirming the right shoulder of a head and shoulders top has formed. The index has dropped back under 2,050 and on toward 2,040 neckline support and a 23% Fibonacci retracement level.

UK 100 is retesting 6,060 channel support where a failure would signal the start of a new downswing with next support near 6,000 then the 5,850-5,870 area. RSI under 50 and falling indicates downward pressure increasing. The inability to get back above 6,200 indicates the recent golden cross was likely a head fake and could fail soon.

Germany 30 is sitting just below 9,900 having successfully retested 9,760 support but remains stuck below 10,000 resistance as it moves into a sideways trading range below 10,100.


Gold has popped up from $1,262 toward $1,276 where it has levelled off short of the $1,285 Fibonacci resistance it needs to overcome to call off its current downtrend. Next resistance near the $1,300 round number with next support at the 50-day average near $1,250.

Crude Oil WTI is coming off an inside day which consolidated Thursday’s breakout above $45.50 which has emerged as higher support with more possible near $45.00. Upside resistance emerging near $46.70 followed by $48.10 a Fibonacci level.

Copper is testing the bottom of a $2.05 to $2.30 trading channel. RSI near 30 suggests this one could go either way with next support tests on a breakdown near $2.00 then $1.92 and initial resistance near $2.16. A golden cross attempt appears to be failing, a bearish sign.


US Dollar Index decisively broke out of a downtrend Friday moving back above 94.00 and trading near 94.60 with next potential resistance near 95.00 the top of its current trading channel.

EURUSD is backsliding again falling from $1.1380 into the $1.1290 to $1.1320 area near the 50-day average. RSI testing 50 where a break would confirm a downturn. Next potential support near $1.1200 a Fibonacci level.

NZDUSD has turned decisively downward trading below $0.6800 also below the uptrend like it recently broke and its 50-day average, while RSI continues to fall away from 50, all signs of an emerging downtrend. Next potential support near $0.56700 then the 200-day average near $0.6645.

AUDUSD remain in retreat falling to test its 200-day average near $0.7265 from lower resistance near $0.7330. Next potential support on a breakdown near $0.7100. RSI falling toward 30 confirms downward pressure increasing.

USDCNH’s uptrend is still accelerating with the pair breaking out over 6.5500 and advancing on 6.5590 with next potential resistance near 6.5780 a Fibonacci level. RSI getting overbought suggests potential for a pause in the near term.

USDSGD has paused between $1.3655 and $1.3765 digesting its recent breakout from a downtrend. next upside resistance possible near $1.3885. RSI steady above 50 confirms underlying uptrend.

USDJPY remains in a downtrend with a recent bounce failing at a lower high near 109.55 and the pair dropping back toward 108.60. RSI faltering at 50 confirms broader downtrend intact. Initial support tests possible near 108.15 then 107.60.

EURJPY has resumed its downtrend falling toward 122.80 from 124.75 where it faltered short of its 50-day average and the 125.00 round number. RSI failing at 50 and rolling down confirms broader downward momentum intact. Next support near 121.55 a channel bottom.

CADJPY has drifted back under 84.55 a Fibonacci level after faltering at its 50-day average and 50 on the RSI which confirm momentum turning back downward with next potential support near 82.45.

USDCAD’s upward bounce appears to be getting underway again after a small correction. A down candle followed by a hammer and then a strong upturn Friday indicates USD bulls have regained control. Support has moved up toward $1.2840 with resistance in place at the 50-day average near $1.2950 then $1.3000 and $1.3145 on trend.

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