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Chart Signals: Currencies keep climbing as USD keeps plunging

Chart Signals: Currencies keep climbing as USD keeps plunging

We’re still getting a lot of follow-through on yesterday’s big USD plunge that released a lot of pressure from other currencies, confirming that a major trend chang appears to be underway. Gold also continues to advance as USD retreats. Index action has been more mixed but bases still appear to be forming in most indices except the Nikkei which remains vulnerable with JPY in rally mode.

Asia Pacific Indices

Australia 200 held 4,900 to set a higher low and has started to advance again driving toward the 4,940 to 4,990 zone. A breakout over 5,000 would confirm an upturn with next potential resistance near 5,045 a Fibonacci test.

Japan 225 keeps dropping back falling below 17,000 into the 16,720 to 16,780 range. While it’s holding yesterday’s low, RSI under 50 and falling suggests growing downward pressure with next support near 16,500.

Hong Kong 50  has turned upward again, clearing 19,000 to confirm a double bottom in place and an upswing underway. Recently trading near 19,250 with next potential resistance near 19,485 a 23% retracement of the downleg that started in December. RSI trending up toward 50 indicates downward pressure fading.

India 50 is bouncing around 7,360 and 7,440 as it tries to level off near 7,400. It needs to regain 7,515 on the index and 50 on the RSI to signal an upturn.

North American and European Indices

US 30 continues to struggle with resistance near 16,475 a 38% retracement of its downtrend from May and has dropped back under 16,350 but at the same time, support has moved up toward 16,330 from 16,290 indicating increased support. RSI testing 50 where a breakout would confirm an upturn.

US NDAQ 100 faltered near 4,195 a Fibonacci level and has dropped back a bit toward 4,150 into a 4,140 to 4,180 zone but remains well above yesterday’s low near 4,090 in what looks like normal backing and filling following a big bounce.

US SPX 500 is slipping back a bit in a trading correction back from resistance near 1,925 but has been holding 1,900 so far and remains well above yesterday’s low near 1,875.

Germany 30 has rolled over again, unable to hold above 9,500, it has drifted back toward the 9,350 to 9,430 range settling near 9,370 with next support near 9,290. RSI rollover below 50 suggests downward pressure increasing.

UK 100 has been chippy trading between 5,825 and 5,940 but a higher high and a higher low suggest renewed accumulation with the index trading near 5,900 and next big resistance at the 6,000 round number.


Gold is testing Fibonacci resistance near $1,155 having traded up to $1,157 where is met resistance. With RSI getting overbought, it could have a tough time getting through for now and may be getting due for a pause. Support moves up toward $1,150 from $1,145.

Crude Oil WTI has run into resistance near $32.35 a Fibonacci level once again and dropped back toward $31.10 with initial resistance falling toward $31.50. It remains in an upswing above the $30.00 round number with RSI bouncing around 50 indicating a sideways consolidation trend emerging.


US Dollar Index continues to retreat with 97.20 emerging as new lower resistance and the index breaking 97.00  and falling toward 98.40 with next measured support possible near 96.25 then 95.50. RSI nearing oversold so it could pause to digest recent losses at some point.

EURUSD continues to rally, retesting its 200-day average near $1.1050 as support then blasting through the $1.1111 round number and Fibonacci resistance and advancing on $1.1220 with next resistance near $1.1255. RSI nearing overbought territory suggests a short-term pause or correction possible.

GBPUSD continues to climb today bouncing around between a Fibonacci cluster near $1.4515 and $1.4660. An attempt by the bears to take over after the BoE meeting quickly failed. RSI above 50 and rising confirms upward momentum increasing.

NZDUSD has rallied up toward $0.6730 where it has levelled off around prior resistance and its 200-day average. Currently trading between $0.6710 and $0.6740, higher lows and a rising RSI indicate continued underlying support. Next upside resistance near $0.6870.

AUDUSD continues to advance, trading up into the $0.7200 to $0.7240 area with support rising toward $0.7170. RSI above 50 and rising confirms upward momentum increasing. Next resistance in place near $0.7300.

USDCNH is breaking down today, taking out uptrend and round number support near 6.6060 and falling into the 6.5680 to 5.5760 range and testing its 50-day average near 6.5575 with next support after that near 6.5325. RSI diving under 50 confirms a downturn in momentum.

USDJPY is diving for a fourth straight day, taking out 117.00 and falling toward 116.60. Next support appears near 116.15, the neckline of a head and shoulders top pattern followed by the 115.00 round number. RSI under 50 and falling indicates momentum turning increasingly downward.

EURJPY has levelled off for now in the 130.00 to 132.25 range recently trading between 130.70 and 131.00 as it pauses to consolidate its recent rally.

CADJPY is bouncing around 85.00 in the 84.70 to 85.30 range within a 84.55 to 86.25 zone between two Fibonacci levels. RSI slipping back toward 50 suggests momentum shifting from big bounce mode to neutral.

USDSGD is breaking down today, busting a long-term uptrend support line near $1.4100 then diving down through $1.4000 to signal a downturn. Levelling off for now in the $1.3950 to $1.3975 area next potential support appears at the 200-day average near $1.3890.

USDCAD has rallied up off of $1.3620 a Fibonacci level up toward $1.3750 in what looks like a normal trading bounce with next resistance near $1.3800 and initial support near $1.3730 then $1.3660. A hammer candle suggests a near-term low  but RSI under 50 and falling indicates this is likely a normal consolidation phase within a broader downtrend.

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