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Chart Signals: Crude oil rally starts to spread to other markets

Chart Signals: Crude oil rally starts to spread to other markets

Crude oil turned up sharply today, confirming that its recent correction appears to be over. This has helped to propel commodity currencies like CAD, AUD and NZD higher. It also appears to be helping to improve sentiment toward stock markets particularly the Australia 200.

Asia Pacific Indices

Australia 200 is starting to rally up off of 4,900 an higher low while RSI bounces off 30 to indicate oversold conditions easing through a trading bounce. Having reached 4,970 it needs to retake 5,000 to confirm the start of an uptrend with next potential resistance near 5,070 then 5,145.

Japan 225 appears to have found its footing near 15,540 having bounced up toward 15,770 with support rising toward the 15,610 to 15,690 area. RSI near oversold suggests potential for a bounce with next resistance possible in the 16,000 to 16,055 area near a round number and Fibonacci test.

Hong Kong 50 appears to be on the rebound having successfully retested 20,000 round number support and rallying up through 20,200 with next resistance possible near 20,380. RSI needs to retake 50 to conclude a recent downswing.

India 50 has bounced off a higher low while the RSI held above 50 indicating its uptrend remains intact and appears to be resuming following a trading correction. The index has moved back into the 7,560 to 7,610 range with next resistance looming near 7,750.

North American and European Indices

US 30 appears to be stabilizing in the 17,610 to 17,700 area but RSI having rolled back under 70 from overbought territory suggests a correction back toward 17,570 or 17,500 can’t be ruled out yet. Bounce resistance in place near 17,720 then 17,800.

US NDAQ 100 held 4,500 and has rallied back up toward 4,540 as a 4,450 to 4,550 trading channel appears to be emerging where it may consolidate recent gains.

US SPX 500 successfully retested 2,040 support setting a higher low and has bounced back toward 2,060 but could still struggle with 2,080 resistance in the near term as it works off an overbought RSI.

UK 100 remains well supported bouncing up off a higher low near 6,065 up into the 6,145 to 6,175 zone with next potential resistance in the 6,235 to 6,250 area near its 200-day average and the top of the current channel.

Germany 30 has stabilized above 9,500 and has bounced back up into the 9,590 to 9,630 area. It appears to be forming another higher low which confirms its underlying uptrend remains intact through the recent correction.


Gold continues to retreat within a $1,210 to $1,240 trading range with resistance falling toward $1,230 and the price diving from near $1,228 toward $1,222 recently. RSI slipping under 50 indicates momentum turning back downward.  .

Crude Oil WTI is bouncing back in a big way building on yesterday’s rally up off $34.80 driving through $36.00 and then on into the $36.80 to $37.20 range with next potential resistance near $37.50 then $38.30. RSI retakes 50 to confirm momentum turning back upward.


US Dollar Index faltered short of 95.00 resistance and has started to slide again falling back toward 94.50 with next potential support near 94.20.

EURUSD continues to digest recent gains in a $1.1325 to $1.1450 channel bouncing around between $1.1370 and $1.1430 before levelling off near $1.1400. RSI falling back toward 50 suggests upward momentum fading.

NZDUSD successfully retested $0.6765 support setting a higher low which along with the RSI holding above 50 indicates its uptrend remains intact. The pair has rallied up toward $0.6830 with next resistance possible near $0.6960.

AUDUSD has moved back up into the middle of the $0.7500 to $0.7000 range where it has been consolidating. Higher lows for the pair indicate underlying accumulation continues.

USDCNH continues to climb within the 6.4570 to 6.5000 range where it has been base building, driving up through 6.4795 a Fibonacci level. RSI advancing on 50 indicates downward pressure fading and an upturn pending. Next potential resistance on a breakout possible near 6.5285 a Fibonacci test and the 50-day average.

USDSGD has resumed its downtrend, falling back under $1.3500 and on toward $1.3460 from a lower high near $1.3570. Next potential measured support appears near $1.3300 on trend.

USDJPY continues to trend downward, breaking 110.00 which has become new resistance and falling into the 109.40 to 109.80 range with next potential measured support near 108.15. RSI confirms downward pressure still increasing.

EURJPY continues to drive downward with resistance falling toward 126.00 and the pair nearing the 125.00 round number with next potential support near 124.00. RSI under 50 and falling indicates downward momentum accelerating.

CADJPY found support near 83.50 and has rebounded toward 83.80 but this appears to be a pause within a larger downtrend with 84.55 Fibonacci and moving average resistance still in place and RSI still under 50 and falling.

USDCAD is starting to drop back falling from $1.3220 a lower high back toward $1,3090 with support near $1.3080 then $1.3000 and resistance falling toward $1.3130. RSI faltering short of 50 indicates correction has run its course and broader downtrend resuming.

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