Crude oil put an exclamation mark on last week’s trading with 5.5% gains confirming its uptrend has resumed after a trading correction ran its course. Speaking of corrections, JPY had a reversal on Friday but it remains to be seen if that was a one-day wonder or the start of a bigger downdraft. The jury remains out on, when, if and how the Bank of Japan may intervene. Still, JPY backing off has taken pressure off of japan 225 with Hong Kong 50 climbing in tandem heading into a big week for China data.
Asia Pacific indices
Australia 200 continues to stabilize in the 4,900 to 5,000 range above a higher low and below a Fibonacci level. RSI indicates downward pressure fading. Next resistance on a breakout possible near 5,045 then 5,150.
Hong Kong 50 is coming off a bullish engulfing candle day that saw it rally up off of the 20,000 round number toward 20,500 before sliding back toward 20,360. RSI peeking back above 50 signals momentum turning up again with next resistance possible near 20,560 and then 20,860.
India 50 successfully tested 7,515 Fibonacci support and has stabilized near 7,500 as it holds in a sideways channel below 7,750.
Japan 225 is on the rebound rallying up off 15,300 into the 15,800 to 15,940 area with RSI back above 30 indicating downward pressure from JPY easing. Next potential resistance in the 16,000 to 16,0550 area then 16,275 a Fibonacci test.
North American and European Indices
US 30 essentially held 17,500 bouncing back up toward 17,610 after a brief dip down toward 17,470 which shook out weak hands. Upside resistance appears near 17,690 then 17,780 while support rises toward 17,570 as it continues to digest recent gains through sideways consolidation.
US NDAQ 100 is bouncing around 4,500 a Fibonacci level as it continues to trend sideways between 4,455 and 4,555 in what looks like a normal pause within an ongoing uptrend.
US SPX 500’s brief dip under 2,040 turned out to be a blip as it has bounced back up toward 2,055 with resistance in place near 2.060 then 2,080. RSI holding 50 indicates its underlying uptrend remains intact through this consolidation phase.
UK 100 is climbing again within its 6,000 to 6,250 trading channel between its 50 and 200-day averages rallying this morning from near 6,130 toward the 6,190 to 6,2230 area.
Germany 30 is rallying up out of a successful retest of 9,400 support driving up through 9,500 into the 9,600 to 9,650 area with next potential resistance near 9,715, the bottom of a gap. RSI stabilizing near 40 indicates downward pressure levelling off.
Gold continues to struggle with resistance near $1,245 but RSI climbing back above 50 indicates momentum picking up again. Currently trading back near $1,240 with initial support near $1,228 a Fibonacci level and next resistance near $1,255.
Crude Oil WTI is rallying again, driving up off of $36.80 through $38.25 which may become support and on toward $39.30 with next resistance possible at the $40.00 round number. RSI back above 50 and rising confirms momentum turning upward again.
US Dollar Index is sitting steady in the middle of a 94.00 to 95.00 range while RSI confirms this as a pause within an emerging downtrend.
EURUSD is sitting just below $1.1400 resistance. RSI rolling down from 50 indicates a correction starting with next potential support near $1.1305 then $1.1255 both Fibonacci tests. Nest resistance on a rally possible near $1.1455 then $1.1495.
NZDUSD continues to trend higher trading above $0.6765 support with more possible at the 50-day average near $0.6700. RSI holding 50 confirms underlying upward momentum remains intact. Initial resistance near $0.6870 then $0.6970 the recent high.
AUDUSD remains in an uptrend with the pair holding $0.7500 and the RSI holding 50. The pair has bounced up into the $0.7550 to $0.7580 range with next potential resistance near $0.7640 then $0.7700.
USDCNH remains range bound trading between 6.4565 and 6.5000 having faltered short of the channel top but holding above 6.4795 Fibonacci support.
USDJPY completed a bear trap dip below 108.00 down toward 107.70 and has since stormed back up toward 109.10 before sliding back into the 108.20 to 108.40 area. Oversold RSI suggests potential for a trading bounce in the near term with next potential resistance at the 110.00 round number.
EURJPY is coming off an inside day where it tried to stage a trading bounce up off of 122.60 but didn’t get very far peaking at a lower thigh near 124.10 before falling back toward 123.30.
CADJPY has had a big trading bounce rallying up off of 82.25 and re-establishing 82.50 Fibonacci support on its way back up into the 83.20 to 83.70 area with next potential resistance near 84.50 close to a Fibonacci level and the 50-day average
USDSGD has rolled back down under $1.3500 falling from a lower high near $1.3545 down toward $1.3480 with next potential support near $1.3450. A symmetrical triangle forming indicates a pause within an ongoing downtrend.
USDCAD has dropped back into the lower half of its $1.2900 to $1.3300 sideways range, sliding from near $1.3110 toward $1.3070 and then on to retest $1.3000 support. RSI rolling over short of 50 indicates broader downtrend resuming following a correction.