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Chart Signals: Crude and CAD climb, indices look tired

Chart Signals: Crude and CAD climb, indices look tired

Crude oil continued to advance Friday pulling CAD along for the ride. Meanwhile, indices around the world paused to finish the week with overbought RSI conditions suggesting recent advances may be overextended and trading corrections possible. AUD and NZD also continue to roll over suggesting less interest in commodity plays outside of energy.

Asia Pacific indices

Australia 200’s upward momentum continues to slow with RSI falling back toward 50 and the index levelling off between 5,485 a Fibonacci test and 5,565 its recent high. 

Hong Kong 50 remains in an uptrend finishing last week trading in the 22,740 to 22,800 range with next potential resistance at the 23,000 round number and more support near 22,635 prior resistance.

Japan 225 continues to struggle with channel and round number resistance near 17,000 finishing last week in the 16,780 to 16,740 zone with more support possible near 16,675.

North American and European Indices

US 30 dropped back from the top of a 18,250 to 18,650 trading channel toward 18,560 after an all-time high close Thursday. RSI indicates upward momentum increasing with room to run. A measured move from the channel suggests index could challenge the 19,000 round number over time. Next support possible near 18,500.

US NDAQ 100 continues to hang around 4,800 consolidating a 6-week rally and working off an overbought RSI. Next potential resistance near a measured 4,920 followed by the 5,000 round number on trend with correction support near 4,740 then 4,680.

US SPX 500 is hanging around 2,185 digesting recent gains with next potential resistance on trend near the 2,200 round number then a measured 2,130. RSI suggests a pause underway within an ongoing uptrend. Support in place near 2,175 then 2,155.

UK 100 continues to climb, building on Thursday’s rally up off 6,800 to trade near 6,930 with next resistance possible near 7,000 where a measured move and round number converge. Overbought RSI suggests a pause or correction possible at some point.

Germany 30 is having an inside day pausing near 10,700 after rallying from near 10,620 toward 10,760 Thursday. Overbought RSI suggests it may need to consolidate for now. Next upside resistance on trend near 10,880 with next support near 10,495.


Gold remains in a holding pattern trading near $1,340 as a symmetrical consolidation triangle forms between $1,330 and $1,370 with initial resistance near $1,350. RSI sitting on 50 confirms sideways momentum.

Crude Oil WTI continues to rebound building on Thursday’s big rally up off $41.00 climbing from near $43.60 toward $44.30. RSI retaking 50 confirms an upturn in momentum. Next potential resistance in the $44.80 to $45.50 range where a Fibonacci test, the 50-day average and $45.00 round number cluster.


US Dollar Index is sitting just below 96.00 stuck in a sideways channel between 95.00 and 96.50. RSI just below 50 indicates neutral to slightly downward momentum.

EURUSD is sitting on its 50-day average near $1.1150 having dropped back from a lower high near $1.1200 while holding a series of higher lows above $1.1050. RSI bouncing between 40 and 60 confirms a broad sideways trend between $1.0900 and $1.1400 continues.

GBPUSD keeps drifting downward with $1.3000 emerging as new resistance and the pair trading near $1.2910. With a falling RSI indicating downward pressure increasing, a retest of the July low near $1.2790 remains possible.

NZDUSD is starting to fall back following a shooting star and failed attempt to break out over $0.7300 indicated buying exhaustion. Currently testing $0.7195 a Fibonacci level with next potential support near $0.7115.

AUDUSD is starting to break down, taking out $0.7700 and falling toward $0.7650 with next potential support near $0.7600 then the $0.7500 round number. RSI rolling over confirms a trading correction starting.

USDSGD is still stabilizing above $1.3400 while RSI holding above 40 indicates downward pressure easing. It still needs to break through its 50-day average near the $1.3500 round number to signal an upturn.

USDJPY is still bouncing around between 100.60 and 102.60 having been knocked down from 101.90 toward 100.90 on Friday.  RSI under 50 suggests this may be a pause within an ongoing downtrend with next support possible at the 100.00 round number.

GBPJPY remains under distribution with falling RSI indicating downward pressure increasing. Pair has dropped back to test 130.00 round number support with a retest of the July low near 128.55 possible if that fails.

EURJPY is holding steady near 113.00 in what looks like a rest stop within an ongoing downtrend with next potential support near 1112/35 then 110.00 and initial resistance near 114.65 then 115.00.

CADJPY is retesting 78.00 as new support following a breakout last week. RSI advancing on 50 indicates an upturn in momentum pending. Next resistance possible at 80.00 where a round number, 50-day average and Fibonacci level converge.

USDCAD continues to break down, trading below $1.3000 and its 50-day average near $1.2970 falling toward $1.2930. RSI back under 50 signals momentum turning downward with next potential support near $1.2850.


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