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Chart Signals: Capital shifts form resource to defensive currencies

Despite a continuing rally in crude oil and WTI back above $50.00, resource currencies remain under pressure with NZD falling away from $0.7000 and AUD approaching $0.7500. Gold and especially the Japanese Yen continue to rally. Indices are trading higher on the day but still look vulnerable for the most part especially Japan 225 and US 30.  

Asia Pacific Indices

Australia 200 continues to pause above 5,835 its recent breakout point and 5,900 resistance trying to decide if this is a rest within a bigger uptrend with the next test near the 6,000 round number, or a top forming with next support possible near 5,800 then the 50-day average near 5,745. 

Japan 225has a big test underway of channel support near 18,835 today. The index dropped down toward 18,690 then bounced back up in what could be a bear trap bounce. Lately the index has been swinging between 18,700 and 19,060. If it can hold this could be a bottom with a hammer candle forming but a failure would signal a new downtrend with next potential support near 18,430. 

Hong Kong 50 holding 24,000 round number support but still appears to be rolling over trading in the 24,100 to 24,300 range down from 24,725. RSI falling toward 50 indicates momentum turning downward. 

North American and European Indices

US 30 has successfully tested its 50-day average near 20,575 bouncing back into the 20,640 to 20,700 area. It has been trading above this average since the election results in November. A failure would have indicated the end of the Trump trade is over and a correction starting. Next potential support near 20,300 a 23% retracement of the post-election rally. RSI near 50 suggests sideways momentum.   

US SPX 500 continues to decline, falling into the 2,350 to 2,362 zone. Lower highs in both the index and its RSI indicate distribution. Next potential support at the 50-day average near 2,342 then 2,313 a 23% Fibonacci retracement of the previous uptrend. 

US NDAQ 100 is starting to roll over, falling from 5,450 toward 5,430. A break under 5,400 would signal a downturn that could test the 50-day average near 5,300 or a 23% retracement near 5,250. A negative divergence and falling RSI signal upward momentum weakening and a downturn pending. 

UK 100 is testing 7,300 and its 50-day average near 7,290 as it continues to form a head and shoulders top falling away from right shoulder resistance and confirming it has broken an uptrend line at 7,350 resistance. Neckline support in place near 7,260. RSI under 50 confirms momentum turning downward. 

Germany 30 appears to have peaked following yesterday’s bearish key reversal day with further declines. Resistance drops toward 12,300 from 12,375 with the index trading between 12,220 and 12 300. Next potential support near 12,165 its recent breakout point. 


Gold is accelerating upward again, breaking through $1,255 and testing its recent intraday high near $1.262 with next potential resistance near $1,278 a Fibonacci level. RSI above 50 and rising indicates upward momentum increasing. Support moves up toward $1,255 from $1,250. 

Crude Oil WTI is building on its recent breakout over $50.00 advancing on $50.70. Next potential resistance appears near $51.30 the 50-day average. RSI climbing up off 50 signals upward momentum accelerating again. 


US Dollar Index continues to work its way back upward, building on its recent breakout over 100.00. The index has regained 100.50 with next potential resistance near 101.00 then 101.60 and 102.00. RSI holding 50 and rising indicates renewed accumulation.  

EURUSD has stabilized in the $1.0640 to $1.0680 range near its 50-day average digesting its recent tumble down from $1.0900. RSI stuck under 50 suggests this could be a pause within a bigger downtrend with next potential support near $1.0585 a Fibonacci level them $1.0500. 

GBPUSD has dropped back under $1.2500 falling form $1.2530 toward $1.2440, but it still remains well above $1.2355 support. RSI testing 50 which may confirm the uptrend or signal a downturn. 


NZDUSD continues its steady descent falling toward $0.6970 after confirming its recent break under $0.7000 with a retest of that level as resistance. RSI falling away from 50 indicates downward momentum increasing. Next potential support near $0.6900 then $0.6860. 

AUDUSD is starting to turn seriously downward taking out $0.7600 and dropping toward the $0.7540 to $0.7560 area around its 200-day average with next potential support near $0.7500. RSI under 50 and falling indicates accelerating downward momentum.  

USDSGD appears to be turning back upward climbing to the top of a $1.3925 to $1.4000 range and breaking out of a downtrend. RSI gaining on 50 indicates downward pressure easing. Next potential resistance near $1.4085 a Fibonacci level and the 50-day average. 

USDJPY has resumed its primary downtrend, dropping from near 111.40 toward 110.70 with next potential support near the 110.00 round number then a Fibonacci cluster near 109.20. Falling RSI confirms accelerating downward momentum. 

GBPJPY has taken a turn downward within its 137.00 to 140.00 trading range between its 200 and 50-day averages. The pair has been trading between 137.20 and 138.20 with RSI under 50 indicating ongoing downward pressure. 

EURJPY remains under pressure dropping form near 118.40 toward a test of its 200-day average near 117.40 then bouncing back. RSI indicates increasing downward pressure. Next downside support near 116.00. 

USDCAD is turning back upward, breaking out over $1.3400 and advancing on $1.3450 before retrenching back toward $1.3415. Next potential resistance near $1.3500 then $1.3600. RSI rallying up off 50 confirms upward momentum accelerating again. 

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