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Chart Signals: Breakdowns and bearish patterns indicate distribution

Signs of distribution and weakness continue to grow across risk markets particularly indices. The Australia 200 has rolled over and is breaking down while the NASDAQ 100 appears to have completed a buying climax and a descending triangle continues to form in the US 30. Head and shoulders tops appear to be nearing completion in US SPX 500 and NZDUSD.  

Asia Pacific Indices

Australia 200 is breaking down today, taking out 5,400 and falling toward 5,355 with next potential support near 5,335 then the 200-day average near 5,265. RSI breaking under 50 confirms momentum turning seriously downward. 

Japan 225 ran into Fibonacci resistance near 17,425 and has retreated into the 17,280 to 17,380 zone. RSI suggests upward momentum starting to level off but uptrend intact for now. In a correction the 17,000 round number could be tested. 

Hong Kong 50 appears to be under distribution with the index falling from a lower high near 23,635 down through 23,410 toward 23,270 with next support closer to 23,000. RSI failing near 50 confirms momentum turning increasingly downward. 

North American and European Indices

US 30 has dropped into the 18,050 to 18,230 range, recently trading near 18,150.  Lower highs below a falling 50-day average and RSI still stuck under 50 indicates distribution. Next potential support near 18,000 then 17,915 a Fibonacci level and the bottom of a descending triangle. 

US NDAQ 100 looks like it may have completed a bull trap peak falling back toward 4,850 after an attempt to break out over 4,900 failed. Lower highs in the RSI indicate upward momentum weakening and a downturn pending. Next potential support at the 50-day average near 4,815 followed by 4,740. 

US SPX 500 continues to turn downward with the index falling back toward 2,135 having once again failed to retake 2,150 the rising neckline of a head and shoulders top. RSI failing at 50 and falling confirms momentum turning downward with next potential support near 2,100 where a round number, 23% Fibonacci retracement and the flat pattern neckline all converge. 

UK 100 is starting to break down with the index falling back under 7,000 toward 6,935 with the low end of the current trading channel near 6,925. RSI sliding back under 50 indicates momentum turning downward. Next potential support on a breakdown near 6,900 and the 50-day average followed by 6,800. 

Germany 30 is starting to roll over again falling back from 10,740 toward 10,670 after failing to overcome 10,800 resistance. RSI also starting to fall suggesting upswing weakening. Next support possible near 10,640 then the 50-day average near 10,555. 


Gold is consolidating recent gains in the $1,264 to $1,276 area around its 200-day average and below $1,282 resistance. RSI inching toward 50 confirms downward pressure easing and base building underway. 

Crude Oil WTI is rolling over appears poised for a breakdown. It has been testing $49.00 support and an attempt to rally up off it failed short of $50.00. Meanwhile RSI is testing 50 where a failure would signal a top in place and a downturn underway with next potential support near $48.05 then $47.45. Successful tests would keep the underlying uptrend intact with next resistance near $50.00. 


US Dollar Index failed to hold above 99.00 and reversed course following what looks like a shooting star or buying climax. Today the index has slipped back toward 98.50. RSI remains overbought so a downward correction possible with next potential support near 98.10 then 97.55. 

EURUSD has regained $1.0900 and appears to have a trading bounce underway to ease an oversold RSI. Recently trading up toward $1.0930, it really needs to retake $1.1000 to suggest this is any more than an upward trading correction. Downside support appears near $1.0845. 

GBPUSD has climbed back up above $1.2200 and back into a symmetrical triangle after a breakdown attempt failed near $1.2090 on Tuesday. RSI suggests downward pressure levelling off. Initial rebound resistance possible near $1.2275 then $1.2325.  

NZDUSD has settled into a $0.7040 to $0.7240 trading range but signs are starting to look more bearish than sideways with the pair trading under its 50-day average and $0.7195 Fibonacci resistance plus the right shoulder of a head and shoulders top may be forming while RSI under 50 indicates momentum turning downward. 

AUDUSD is sending mixed signals. Although the pair continues to struggle with $0.7725 resistance falling back from near $0.7680 toward $0.7640, RSI holding 50 and higher lows suggest continued underlying accumulation with an ascending triangle forming above $0.7600 round number and 50-day average support. 

USDSGD successfully retested $1.3880 support to set a higher low and keep its underlying uptrend intact. RSI still near overbought suggest we may get a pause rather than a downward correction perhaps in the $1.3880 to $1.3960 range.  

USDCNH appears to be levelling off in the 6.7760 to 6.7900 range, recently trading between 6.7790 to 6.7840 area. Extremely overbought RSI indicates potential for a downward correction, perhaps toward 6.7725 or 6.7525 a 23% retracement of the recent uptrend. 

USDJPY has settled back into the 104.00 to 104.50 area after a recent run at 105.00 round number and Fibonacci resistance failed. RSI indicates upward momentum flattening out. Initial support in a downturn possible near 103.20.  

GBPJPY keeps quietly working its way upward within a 124.70 to 128.70 base building range, recently trading near 127.90 up from 127.20. RSI gaining on 50 confirms downward pressure weakening and an upturn pending.  

EURJPY is still bouncing around within a 112.00 to 116.00 trading range. An upswing appears to be underway with the pair gaining on 114.00 and the 50-day average and the RSI nearing 50 where a breakout would confirm momentum turning upward. 

USDCAD remains in an uptrend with the rising pair supported by a rising RSI. The $1.3310 breakout point has emerged as support with the pair advancing on the $1.3360 to $1.3380 area with next potential resistance near $1.3375 then $1.3465. 

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