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Chart Signals: Big technical test for rallying JPY today

Chart Signals: Big technical test for rallying JPY today

JPY is rallying against USD, EUR and CAD today while putting pressure on Japan 225 as exporters often trade in the opposite direction of the currency. In particular, USDJPY is testing 111.00 which could end in a big breakdown or a quadruple bottom. Indices in general appear to be rolling over in the US, Germany and Australia along with the oil price.

Asia Pacific Indices

Australia 200 is back testing 5,000 again with RSI under 50 and falling indicating downward pressure increasing. Resistance has dropped toward 5,050 with next potential support near 4,965 then 4,905.

Japan 225 remains under pressure today with resistance falling toward 16,240 from 16,540 and the index falling back into the 16,000 to 16,055 zone between a round number and a Fibonacci test with next potential support near 15,860 on a breakdown.

Hong Kong 50 is off to a volatile start this week having plunged from near 20,860 toward 20,310 before rebounding back up toward 20,500 with initial resistance near 20,575 and 20,710 both Fibonacci levels. RSI falling toward 50 suggests it may be moving into a wide sideways channel between 20,200 and 21,000.

India 50 is bumping up against 7,750 again with support rising toward the 7,700 to 7,720 area as its uptrend resumes. Next upside resistance possible near 7,810 then 7,955.

North American and European Indices

US 30 broke out early but faltered driving up off of 17,775 through 17,825 then doing a round trip back toward 17,720. RSI overbought with a double top  indicates uptrend fading and the risk of a swift reversal growing.

US NDAQ 100 reached a new high on trend, setting a higher low near 4,530 but then dropped back toward 4,510 in a trading correction still holding Friday’s 4,500 breakout point so far. RSI getting overbought suggests potential for a pause or correction.

US SPX 500 continues to climb, 2,080 with next upside resistance on trend near 2,100 before dropping back toward 2,064 to successfully hold Friday’s breakout point for now. An overbought RSI and potential double top suggest current rally may be getting overextended and the risk of a significant correction growing.

UK 100 is climbing within a 6,000 to 6,250 trading channel between its 50 and 200-day moving averages, recently advancing from near 6,130 toward 6,200. RSI holding 50 and higher lows on trend indicated ongoing accumulation. Next resistance on a breakout possible near 6,310.

Germany 30 mounted another charge at 10,000 rallying up from near 9,730 toward 9.910 but then failed again, falling back down toward 9,770 with next support near 9,650. RSI falling back under 50 signals momentum turning downward.


Gold is having an inside day digesting and confirming Friday’s losses. So far support has held near $1,210 but $1,228 looks like formidable Fibonacci resistance and with RSI confirming the break under 50 downward momentum appears to be increasing with next potential support near $1,200 then $1,193.

Crude Oil WTI is breaking down today, taking out $35.35 a Fibonacci level on its second try at it and then the $35.00 round number. Next downside support appears near 34.25 then $33.00  RSI under 50 and falling indicates downward pressure increasing.


US Dollar Index has paused in the 94.30 to 95.10 range but with RSI still well below 50 this appears to be a rest stop within a larger downtrend so far.

EURUSD has been bumping up against $1.1400 with more resistance possible near 1.1500. RSI peaking near 70 also suggests the pair may be starting to consolidate a recent rally in the $1.1330 to $1.1440 area.

NZDUSD continues to tumble back from $0.7000 resistance slipping back under $0.6870 toward $0.6830 with next support possible near $0.6800 then $0.6770. RSI rollover but above 50 indicates a trading correction within an uptrend.

AUDUSD has dropped back toward $0.7600 having failed to hold above $0.7700. It remains in an uptrend above $0.7500 a round number and previous low. RSI falling away from 70 after a negative divergence indicates upward momentum fading.

USDCNH has completed a double bottom near 6.4570 with higher lows in the RSI confirming the recent downtrend appears to be ending. Initial upside resistance tests possible near 6.4795 (downtrend resistance) then 6.5000 (round number).

USDSGD has stabilized near $1.3500 in an emerging $1.3400 to $1.3600 trading range. A positive RSI divergence indicates downward pressure starting to recede.

USDJPY has a big test of channel support at 111.00 which could end in a big breakdown signalling a new downleg that could test 110.00 or event 109.00 initially or complete a quadruple bottom with initial resistance near 111.90 or 112.65.

EURJPY continues to fall away from 128.00 resistance testing its 50-day average near 126.90 with next potential support near 126.20. RSI dropping back toward 50 suggests resumption of its broader downtrend pending.

CADJPY remains in a downswing still below 86.20 and sliding toward 85.00 with next potential support near 84.55 where the 50-day average and a Fibonacci test converge. RSI dipping back under 50 suggests momentum turning downward.

USDCAD is holding above $1.3000 as it continues an upward correction advancing on $1.3070 with next resistance near $1.3150.  RSI rising toward 50 indicates downward pressure easing and momentum shifting into neutral.

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