NZD has rallied up out of a hammer candle to complete a 3 day candlestick bullish reversal. The Kiwi Dollar played catchup while other currencies also benefitted from a retreat in USD that also saw JPY turn back upward. Crude oil had another big day with a golden cross of the 50 and 200-day averages completed in WTI and Brent extremely close to confirming.
Asia Pacific Indices
Australia 200 peeked above 5,400 and the top of a trading channel dating back 9 months but ran into resistance near 5,435 and has been knocked back down toward 5,350 in a bearish reversal. Oversold RSI suggests index due for a trading correction. Next potential support near 5,335 a Fibonacci level.
Japan 225 ran into resistance near 16,805 and has been knocked back into the 16,440 to 16,480 area. This looks like a normal trading correction so far but if 16,218 Fibonacci support or 50 on the RSI were to be broken, a new downswing would be signalled.
Hong Kong 50 continues to bounce abound between 19,960 and 20,080 as support emerges near the 20,000 round number. RSI near oversold suggests potential for a pause or a bounce in the near term.
India 50 has started to fall away from another lower high, this time near 7,915 but so far 7,750 initial support has held with the index bouncing up toward 7,850. RSI dropping toward 50 suggests another downturn pending.
North American and European Indices
US 30 has dropped back toward 17,710 from 17,870 giving back much of Tuesday’s rally up off its 50-day average near 17,615. RSI still suggests an upswing underway but the index really needs to get back above 18,000 to call off a potential head and shoulders top right shoulder.
US NDAQ 100 has run into resistance at its 200-day average near 4,400 and also at 50 on the RSI. It needs to clear these levels to call off the current downtrend. Next resistance near 4,455 then 4,500 if successful but if it fails and turns back downward, next support may appear near 4,345 then 4,300.
US SPX 500’s rebound has stalled near 2,080 and may be forming the right shoulder of a small head and shoulders top as is drops back toward 2,068. It needs to clear 2,100 to call off the pattern. A lower high in the RSI suggests upward momentum weakening. Initial support near then 2,060 and 2,040.
UK 100 remains stuck between 6,100 support and moving average resistance near 6,200. Although the 50-day average has climbed above the 200-day, I can’t call this a golden cross as long as the price remains below the averages because it could be a head fake.
Germany 30 has drifted back from a lower high near 10,070 back under 10,000 falling toward the 9,930 to 9,940 area. RSI faltered at 50 indicating a downtrend may be emerging. Next potential support near 9,815 then 9,745.
Gold popped up from near $1,268 toward $1,278 in what appears to be a trading bounce within an emerging downtrend as it has faltered at a lower thigh short of $1.285 Fibonacci resistance. RSI holding 50 suggests underlying uptrend intact but in this corrective phase, the 50-day moving average near $1,250 may still be retested.
Crude Oil WTI has rallied to retest the top of its $42.40 to $45.80 trading channel with support rising toward $45.50. The 50-day average has moved above the 200-day to complete a golden cross confirming the start of a new uptrend.
US Dollar Index has rolled back under 94.00 to signal the start of another downswing as it falls away from another lower high near 94.40. Next support in a pullback possible near 93.80 then 93.15. RSI faltering at 50 again signals longer term downtrend remains intact.
EURUSD has stabilized in the $1.1400 to $1.1450 range having found support near $1.1355 which has moved up toward $1.1380 already. RSI holding 50 indicates underlying upward momentum still intact despite the recent trading correction. Initial resistance near $1.1470 then $1.1500 on a rebound.
NZDUSD has a nice candle turnaround underway, with a down candle followed by a hammer and then today’s rally signalling a change in control from bears to bulls. The pair has regained $0.6800 with next potential resistance near $0.6870 then $0.6900. RSI nearing 50 where a breakout would confirm momentum turning back upward.
AUDUSD has started to rebound up off of $0.7300 a higher low on trend above the 200-day average. Trading near $0.7400 it needs to retake $0.7500 to undo recent technical damage and get back on track.
USDCNH is retesting its 6.5285 breakout point after encountering resistance near 6.5475. It remains in an uptrend above 6.5000 a round number and the 50-day average.
USDSGD continues to retrench trading near $1.3750 after running into resistance near $1.3735 but still holding above its $1.3600 breakout point.
USDJPY met resistance near 109.35 and has dropped back into the 108.40 to 108.70 range. A lower high for the pair and RSI faltering at 50 suggest the recent rally was a trading bounce correction within an ongoing downtrend.
EURJPY has levelled off in the 123.80 to 124.30 area still stuck in a downtrend below its 50-day moving average near 124.65 and also stuck below 50 on the RSI signalling an ongoing downtrend.
CADJPY is holding steady near 84.55 a Fibonacci level with support rising toward 83.90. RSI still needs to regain 50 to confirm the start of an upswing with next resistance near 86.20.