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Chart Signals: Big breakouts and breakdowns in commodities and currencies

It’s been a day for big moves across currencies and commodities sparked by the US Dollar finally cracking. Large early moves have been partially reversed in normal backing and filling. Gold and copper have been very active along with major currencies including JPY, AUD, NZD, SGD, CAD, and EUR. GBP has been underperforming and breaking down relative to JPY. 

Asia Pacific Indices

Australia 200 appears to be running out of gas, with resistance emerging near 5,800 and the index sliding back toward 5,755. RSI overbought and rolling over indicates uptrend peaking and the potential for a correction increasing with next potential support near 5,720 then 5,700. 

Japan 225 is accelerating downward and looks poised for a breakdown. The index has dropped from near 19,330 down to test 19,000 trading between 18,970 and 19,170. RSI testing 50 where a break would confirm a downturn in momentum. 

Hong Kong 50 has encountered some resistance near 23,000 with more possible near 23,130. The index has dropped back toward the 22,820 to 22,940 range in what looks like a normal trading correction retesting its 22,780 breakout point as new support with more possible near 22,435 the 50-day average.  

North American and European Indices

US 30 is still struggling with the 20,000 round number trading in a channel between there and 19,700. The index has been bouncing between 19,770 and 19,915 recently trading near 19,870. RSI falling toward 50 indicates upward momentum weakening. 

US SPX 500 is starting to fall away from 2,282 resistance trading back into the 2,266 to 2,272 area with next potential support near 2,260 then 2,245. RSI falling after a negative divergence indicates recent uptrend momentum exhausted and fading. 

US NDAQ 100 has run into resistance near 5,050 and has levelled off between there and 5,000 its recent round number breakout point trading recently near 5,028. It’s too early to tell if this is a top or a pause within an ongoing uptrend but RSI suggests upward momentum may be peaking for now as well. 

UK 100 is having an inside day near 7,300 after running into resistance near 7,320. RSI overbought and starting to roll over suggests upward momentum may be near exhaustion and a correction possible. Initial pullback support near 7,260 then 7,180.  

Germany 30 looks like it may have peaked, peeking up above 11,600 to 11,666 and then reversing downward into the 11,490 to 11,590 zone. RSI breaking down below 70 from overbought signals a downward correction starting with next potential support near 11,445 a recent breakout point. 


Gold is testing more resistance hurdles today. Yesterday’s retaking of the 50-day average near $1,190 has been confirmed with the metal price hovering around the $1,200 round number and $1,203 Fibonacci resistance trading up toward $1.206 at one point. Next upside tests near $1,212 then $1,220 with initial support near $1,197. Rising RSI confirms upward momentum accelerating. 

Crude Oil WTI continues its rebound up off $50.40. Having regained $51.60, the price is advancing on the $52.50 to $53.10 area with next potential resistance near $53.70 the top of the current channel. RSI back above 50 indicates underlying uptrend resuming following a correction. 

Copper is breaking out today, clearing $2.61 to complete a flag pattern and signal the start of a new upleg. The metal price has advanced on $2.66 with next potential resistance near $2.70 and $2.73. Rising RSI indicates upward momentum accelerating. 


US Dollar Index is breaking down today, taking out 101.20 to signal the start of a new downleg and falling toward 100.70 before retesting the breakdown point as new resistance. Next potential support near the 100.00 round number then 99.40. RSI under 50 and falling confirms momentum turning increasingly downward. 

EURUSD is breaking out in a big way today clearing its 50-day average near $1.0615 then a Fibonacci level near $1.0655 reaching $1.0680 before sliding back toward $1.0630. Growing upward momentum confirmed by an RSI breakout. Next potential resistance near $1.0720 then a Fibonacci cluster near $1.0830.  

GBPUSD is starting to rebound after completing a big double bottom near $1.2000 earlier this week. The pair staged two big moves rallying up toward $1.2300 then sliding back toward $1.2160. It looks like a new uptrend may be emerging but more confirmation needed. 

NZDUSD continues its breakout over $0.7000 and its moving averages rallying up off $0.7050 and driving on toward the $0.7110 to $0.7140 area with next potential resistance near $0.7235. RSI above 50 and rising confirms upward momentum accelerating. 

AUDUSD has paused in the $0.7490 to $0.7520 area to digest recent gains near the $0.7500 round number and its 200-day average. Rising RSI indicates underlying upward momentum still intact. More support near $0.7450 with more resistance near $0.7565.   

USDSGD has retested its 50-day average near $1.4280 as resistance confirming yesterday’s breakdown and signalling the start of a new downtrend. Next potential resistance near $1.4210 then $1.4160. RSI near 40 indicates continued distribution.  

USDJPY is accelerating downward with resistance falling toward 115.50 a Fibonacci level, the pair diving under 115.00 again and falling into the 113.80 to 114.60 area around a 114.05 Fibonacci test. Next potential support at the 50-day average near 113.45 then 112.35. Falling RSI confirms downward pressure increasing.   

GBPJPY is breaking down today, taking out 140.00 to confirm the break of its averages the start of a new downleg with next potential support near 138.10 a Fibonacci test. Falling RSI indicates downward momentum accelerating. 

EURJPY is still trending sideways between 121.00 and 124.00 trading between 121.30 and 121.90. It still appears to be forming a top with RSI breaking under 50 to signal a downturn in momentum. Next support possible near the 120.00 round number. 

USDCAD is breaking down today, falling from $1.3200, taking out its 200-day average near $1.3085 to signal the start of a new downtrend and continuing toward $1.3040 before bouncing back toward $1.3120. Next potential support between the $1.3000 round number and $1.2975 Fibonacci level.  

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