The USD has started to ease back following neutral FOMC minutes, igniting rallies for a number of currencies particularly AUD, NZD and SGD. EUR also appears to be on the rebound relative to USD and JPY. Indices tested or reached new highs but are starting to look technically exhausted and vulnerable once again.
Asia Pacific Indices
Australia 200 appears to be forming a double top with resistance holding near 5,830, the index falling back under 5,800 and a lower high in the RSI indicating weakening upward momentum. Next potential support in a pullback appears near 5750 then 5,700 and the 50-day average.
Japan 225 has started to tumble, falling back toward 19,320 from 19,410 but so far this appears to be a downdraft within a consolidation phase with the index holding above its 50-day average near 19,230 and RSI holding above 50. Next potential resistance near 19,475.
Hong Kong 50 continues to consolidate recent gains and work off an overbought RSI in the 24,000 to 24,230 range recently trading between 24,125 and 24,175.
North American and European Indices
US 30 rallied up toward 20,780 before encountering resistance and slipping back toward 20,740 with next support possible near 20,700. RSI overbought and levelling off suggests a pause or correction possible.
US SPX 500 is retesting resistance near 2,366, and has been unable to get through so far Next support in a pullback possible near 2,350 then 2,345. A double top and an overbought RSI suggests upward momentum may be reaching its limits and a correction possible.
US NDAQ 100 appears to be running out of gas, trading between 5,355 and 5,335 with next potential support closer to 5,300. RSI overbought and starting to roll over indicates upward momentum weakening and the index vulnerable to a potential correction.
US Small Cap 2000 is holding above its 1,400 breakout point for now but has encountered resistance near 1,410 with more possible near 1,455 based on a measured move from the recent trading channel. A big negative RSI divergence and non-confirmation can be seen as bearish suggesting upward momentum may be fading.
UK 100 is still struggling with 7,300 lower resistance bouncing around between 7,280 and 7,310 with next support possible near 7,200 a Fibonacci level. Lower highs in the index and the RSI indicate upward momentum has peaked and a downturn starting.
Germany 30 has started to backslide after peeking briefly above 12,000 dropping back from 12,030 toward 11,970 in what could be a bull trap or buying climax. A negative RSI divergence indicates upward momentum slowing. Next potential support near 11,905 a recent breakout point.
Gold remains in an uptrend, consolidating recent gains between $1,220 and $1,245 recently trading between $1 230 Fibonacci support and $1,240. The price has moved up from $1,232 toward $1.239 following the Fed minutes. RSI steady near 60 indicates a consolidation phase within a bigger advance.
Crude Oil WTI has dropped back under $53.85 toward $53.25 revealing yesterday’s breakout to be a head fake and a possible buying climax. It remains in an uptrend though above $53.00 with more pullback support possible at the 50-day average near $52.40.
US Dollar Index continues to climb steadily with support moving up from 101.00 toward the 50-day average near 101.35, while RSI above 50 and rising confirms growing upward momentum. Next potential resistance tests near 101.70 then 102.00.
EURUSD remains under pressure, falling to test the $1.0500 round number with next potential support on a breakdown near $1.0455. Falling RSI and lower highs for the pair indicate continuing distribution. Initial resistance falls toward $1.0570 from $1.0600.
GBPUSD remains well supported above its 50-day average near $1.2410 trading near $1.2455 still stuck below $1.2500 initial resistance. RSI sitting on 50 confirms current sideways trend.
NZDUSD has successfully retested support at its 200-day average near $0.7135 completing a double bottom to end a correction and confirm its underlying uptrend remains intact. The pair has rebounded toward $0.7200 with next potential resistance near $0.7240 and $0.7310.
AUDUSD has popped back up above $0.7700 and is once again challenging $0.7725 resistance where a breakout would complete and ascending triangle and signal the start of a new upleg with next potential resistance near $0.7780 then a measured $0.7845.
USDSGD has resumed its downtrend falling from near $1.4190 toward $1.4110 taking out $1.4155 which may become lower resistance. Next support possible near $1.4085 a Fibonacci test then $1.4000. RSI falling away from 50 indicates downward momentum accelerating.
USDJPY is still bouncing around between 112.35 and 114.05 two Fibonacci levels but this appears to be a pause within a bigger downtrend with RSI holding below 50. Recent trading between 113.00 and 113.70.
GBPJPY is still stuck trading between its 200 and 50-day averages below 142.25 and above 140.00. A downtrend may be emerging with the pair falling from 141.50 toward 140.50 and RSI sitting under 50.
EURJPY plunged from 120.00 toward 118.60 early on but regained its footing and rebounded into the 119.40 to 119.80 with initial support possible near 119.05 a Fibonacci level. Falling RSI indicates continuing distribution but today may have been a bear trap washout reversal.
USDCAD is breaking out of a downtrend today, clearing $1.3110 advancing on $1.3200 then sliding back toward $1.3150 as it bounces around its its 200-day average near $1.3170. Next potential resistance at the 50-day average near $1.3240. RSI regaining 50 confirms momentum turning upward.