AUDUSD finding some resistance - for the moment

CMC Markets

Given the surge in momentum in the AUD (or simply downward momentum for the USD depending on how you read it) there has been equal amounts of talk about when the Aussie will reach parity with the USD and whether or not there will be any meaningful resistance levels to stand in its way. For the moment at least there appears to be some decent resistance forming up - this may prove attractive to traders because their stops can be placed nice and close to their entry. Even though a short trade on the AUD at the moment seems very contrary to momentum the reversal signals that are being seen provide some degree of evidence to this being a viable strategy.

As you can see on the 240 minute chart there has been an 'M Reversal' formed. This setup occurs when there is a breach of the Bollinger Bands, a subsequent trough formed and then another peak formed - this time inside the Bollinger Bands. The expectation here is that the level of momentum is falling which may signal a reversal. Generally the trader will place their stop loss order above the most recent peak which if breached will show a breakdown of the reversal. The trader needs to trail their stop though as there isn't really a standard means of setting a target price with this type of trade - a fairly standard type of trailing method may be to set a 2 bar trailing stop which would mean that the stop is placed above the high of the candle/bar 2 previous to the current one. Keep in mind that the stop should only move in the direction of the trade and not against it.

Sign up for market update emails