AUDNZD - the end of the rally

AUDNZD - the end of the rally

It's been a lousy week for milk prices but arguably and even worse one for iron ore. This together with today's soft Aussie retail sales figure has seen $A lose ground against the Kiwi from what looks as though it could be a significant turning point.

Weekly Chart

A longer term look at AUDNZD shows this week's candle closing back below a pretty well established resistance line. The slow stochastics in this time frame are also well up in the over bought zone (see box below the chart)

AUDNZD CFD Weekly Click to enlarge AUDNZD CFD Weekly
Click to enlarge

Daily Chart

The daily time frame looks as thought it has completed an Elliot 5 wave advance at this resistance level. I've outlined a bigger picture Elliot interpretation with the bold letters. The final swing in this move looks like a 5 wave advance as indicated by the smaller numbers. The fact that price has moved back below the peak at 3 provides a clue that this last advance has finished. If the last advance has finished then we are in for a correction of the larger rally and so potentially a decent sized move lower.

The slow stochastic is also overbought in the daily time frame.

Based on these interpretations of the longer term charts, my strategic bias is towards looking for sell set ups in shorter term charts for AUDNZD. Now that the market looks as though it may have begun to fall away, this will involve looking for short term  corrective rally to sell into


Hourly Chart.

The hourly chart is looking as though AUDNZD may have completed a neat AB=CD move at 1.1275. If this holds true we may now get a corrective rally to sell into

AUDNZD 1 hour 3 July 15

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