AUD:JPY 30 minute - potential channel set up

AUD:JPY 30 minute - potential channel set up


As the chart below shows AUD:JPY has made a partial pull back into a trend channel that sits  at the top of a significant uptrend.

This channel is only just established. The 2nd touch of the trend line at the bottom has so far resulted in only a partial rise back into the body of the channel.

These partial rises can be a useful early warning of faltering momentum. Taken together with divergence on the MACD oscillator and the fact that the stochastic oscillator on the higher time frame 4 hour chart is overbought, a partial rise into this channel is the sort of thing traders would have on their watch list as a potential shorting opportunity.

One approach to strategy would be to sell on a confirmed break below the channel support line from here. The chart shows two potential profit objectives, for a scaled approach. Under this strategy the position is split into 2 with half bought back at the first objective and half at the second

The first target is a 23.6% retracement of the major up trend leading into the channel. This coincides with the first significant support level below the channel

The second target is the 50% retracement level often known as the point of control

If the peak at the partial rise holds, then the stop can be placed just behind this level

If price takes out the partial rise peak instead of breaking the support then rallies back and again rejects the channel resistance the set up may still be valid. Just wait for a break below the support to occur

In that case the stop would go above the channel resistance. Also the Fib retracements have to be re calculated from the new peak

By the way the "divergence" I talked about above refers to the fact that price is still making higher highs in the channel but the MACD oscillator made a lower high. This indicates that the trend is losing momentum