AUDEUR - Is the gift that keeps on giving - all given out?

CMC Markets

One of the most precarious technical calls that I think you can make is to call the end of a big trending move. Happily for me I'm not doing that today but I would say that the case against the AUDEUR cross is starting to build up a little bit. When looking at the daily chart I was all set to call it a head and shoulders pattern but I think that may be a bridge too far - instead focus your attention on the channel and where the price is now in relation to it:

The most obvious thing to note with this pattern is the breakout that is in action on the channel pattern that I have marked. Based on the height of this pattern if there is a confirmation of the breakout then it would give short side traders a target of about 180 pips.

Happily if you were to argue that it is a head and shoulders pattern then the target is pretty much the same.

If you look at the same chart on the hourly timeframe I think we see a little bit more short side evidence - not the strongest in the world but it gives a good stop-loss. You can see that price seems to be respective the lower volatility band of the 50 period moving average (red). In addition the price has retested the channel from the daily chart but has not been able to break back in - these 2 items give a pretty decent  stop-loss level for short-term traders.

I will keep an eye on this one and post back in coming days if the move is sustained.

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