Apple was on the brink of destruction back in 1997 until Steve Jobs was brought back into the fold, not only to save the company, but to turn it into the money printing behemoth that has almost a cult like following today. However, since the passing of Steve Jobs in 2011, a shift towards “i” devices and away from computers (long refresh cycles, outdated technology and focus on design rather than features) combined with neglecting their most loyal customer base (creatives and developers) seems to have set the course for a potentially bumpy ride in the future.
While CEO Tim Cook is not getting tired of telling everybody about the huge innovation pipeline Apple has, the perception by many followers is that new products such as the watch or the rose gold colored iPhone are not the type of innovation they have been looking for. Are Apple’s ideas becoming stale?
I’m not sure, however market movers and shakers such as Carl Icahn and other hedge fund managers have dumped shares of Apple in the first quarter of this year. However, on the other hand, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway have been buying Apple recently! It has to be said though, the Oracle of Omaha himself was quick to comment that this decision wasn’t his own. Let’s now take a look at the charts to see what the technical outlook is for Apple.
After hitting an all-time high of 134.54 at the end of April 2015, Apple has been in a technincal downtrend since then: on the weekly chart we can easily see the series of lower lows and lower highs.


On this monthly chart with just two Fibonacci retracement applied, two price levels immediately jump out: 86 and 72. Here we get clusters of both studies in close proximity.


Cluster @ 86:
- Yearly S1 Pivot at 86.66
- 2% Fib Retracement (2008/2009, April 2015)
- 8% Fib Retracement (June 2013, April 2015)
- 8% Fib Extension (April 2015, Jan 2016, April 2016
Cluster @ 72:
- 100% Fib Extension (April 2015, Jan 2016, April 2016)
- 6% Fib Retracement (Jun 2013, April 2015)
- 50% Fib Retracement (2008/2009, April 2015)
- Yearly S2 Pivot at 68.06
As usual, in trading there can never be a guarantee for anything as it is all about probabilities. But now I know that these two levels are rather high probability targets for a potential move down. Should I get a convincing short setup in the next few days, I will be aiming for those levels and taking profit as I go.
As we can see, the techncials do support the negative press that Apple has received in 2016. So, Apple; Juice or Vinegar? You decide, however I intend to ignore the press (good and bad) and intend to plan my trade and trade my plan.