Analysts have been downgrading their iPhone 6 sales estimates. From here the Apple Inc chart outlook indicates two possibilities.
The sales downgrades follow disappointing results from iPhone's component manufacturers. The concern is that in developed countries, smartphones have become a mature, "replacement" market. In many emerging markets, iPhone is suffering from higher prices.
Mildly bearish Apple Inc chart outlook
Theoretically, Apple's forward Price: Earnings multiple is down to 11. This looks pretty moderate for a stock with Apple's growth profile. However, market earnings estimates are probably below the published consensus. That would make the actual "market"PE higher than the one based on sell side analysts' consensus.
If the current decline is just about a temporary sales wobble, a correction of the “B” to “C” rally looks the most likely outlook. Retracement levels for this alternative might be $103.50/$104 or $98.90
Apple Inc CFD - Monthly
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Bearish Apple Inc chart outlook
However, looking at the long term monthly chart, you could easily make a much more bearish case:
- Having completed, a major 5 wave advance, Apple could be in for a pretty substantial correction of that whole move
- The slow stochastic indicator is heading south, just like it did in the last 2 major corrections. (See box below the chart).
- Those two major corrections bottomed just below the 40 month moving average.It wouldn't surprise to see this one do the same
- Potential trend line support and a harmonic AB=CD level lurk below the 40 month average.
- This all implies a move back to something like $82-$90.
Perhaps the best way to look at this may not be as a prediction but a warning sign. The chart outlook suggests the market is positioned to deal pretty harshly with any disappointing news.