Finding the time to trade is one of the most common reasons traders miss out on market opportunities.
Join Chief Market Strategist Michael McCarthy for a 21-day trading campaign, as he demonstrates that taking advantage of market opportunities can be practised with just five minutes a day. Posting daily from 1 March, Michael will take on the most popular instrument in the world – the EUR vs USD, as he applies a technical strategy, going head-to-head with the markets.
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Fifteenth trade. 21 March – prices
After last night’s clear intraday trend we’re looking for a little more reversion to the mean tonight. In this last third of the campaign we need just two more wins to assure a profit for the month. UK retail sales data and US jobless claims are released tonight, and may prove the catalyst for the sort of move that suits the Five Minutes a Day Trading strategy.
Fed cruels the trade. Results – day 14
The Five Minutes a Day Trading strategy took a loss overnight, and we’re blaming the US Federal Reserve. After a quiet European session the release of the Fed’s interest rate decision sent EUR/USD ripping higher, triggering our sell order then blowing through our stop loss level almost immediately afterward. However we remain undeterred and will be back at 5 pm today to continue with our trading plan.
Fourteenth trade. 20 March – prices
At the two-thirds mark the Five Minutes a Day Trading campaign is ahead of the required hit rate. With 8 trades to go, the strategy needs just 2 wins to deliver a profit for the month. This required 25% strike rate is below the 33% required at the beginning of the month, and is aided by the three “draws” so far. If the strategy delivers tonight we’ll be in a strong position.
Seeking closure. Results – day 13
In an extraordinary development we have our third unclosed trade this month. Once again, we realise a small profit, keeping us above water with a 55 pip gain so far this month. The 3 “draws” have changed the overall win/loss dynamic. We now only need 6 outright wins to make a profit for the month, down from 7. Join us again at 5 pm today as we take on the largest single market in the world – EUR/USD.
Thirteenth trade. 19 March – prices
Lucky thirteen. This trade could appeal to the contrarian, or at least a superstitious contrarian. The lack of movement overnight is unusual, and although a draw is acceptable the Five Minutes a Day Trading strategy would benefit from another win. Just nine trades to go. Two more wins will deliver a profitable month, but we’re looking for more.
Another curve ball – still ahead. Results day 12
For the second time this month, and only the second time in the seven month-long Five Minutes a Day Trading campaigns, we have an unclosed trade at the New York 5 pm close. (9am Melbourne/ Sydney). In accordance with the rules the trade is closed at the price at that time – in this case our sell trade at 1.1347 is closed out at 1.1336. Another small profit, but it changes the profit conversation. With 4 wins and 2 draws, we now only need 2 more wins for a profitable month.
Twelfth trade. 18 March – prices
We’re now past the half way point of this Five Minutes a Day Trading campaign for the month of March. With four clear wins, one draw and six losses we are 38 pips ahead, and looking for another win tonight. Only three more wins from the remaining ten trades are required to assure a profitable month, illustrating the power of a higher reward to risk ratio.
A winning cluster – results day 11
The second win in a row and the fourth clear win for the campaign puts the Five Minutes a Day Trading strategy further into profit for the month of March. In past campaigns we’ve observed winning trades coming in a cluster. While past performance is not a guide to the future the idea that favourable market conditions may prevail for a number of days is intuitively appealing. We’ll find out more tonight! Join us at 5 pm Melb/Syd time for our next trade.
Eleventh trade. 15 March – prices
Another day, another trade. Today also marks the halfway point of our EURUSD March rally and we’re looking to further increase our win count. The Eurozone’s Consumer Price Index rate will be released this evening and we could see some volatility during the session depending on that inflationary figure. Join us tonight at 5pm as we wrap-up the second week of our 5 minutes a day trading campaign.
Back in profit – results day 10
Trade number ten delivered our third clear win of this Five Minutes a Day Trading campaign. After four losses in a row, and a dip into loss territory, its pleasing to be back in profit for the month. Last night’s trade was a perfect illustration of the market pattern the strategy seeks: a false move to begin with turns to a trend in the other direction. It also shows the importance of persistence in trading. Previous campaigns have indicated that wins tend to cluster, so we have heightened expectations for tonight’s trade, kicking off at 5 pm Melbourne/Sydney time.
Tenth trade. 14 March – prices
One of the toughest parts of trading is sticking to the plan when it’s not paying off. The beauty of a carefully crafted, well researched trading plan is that it’s much easier to keep at it when the going gets tough. Looking back on previous campaigns some profitable months had runs of twelve or thirteen outs before returning to healthier territory. Of course the preference is a win tonight.
Persistence – results day 9
The uptrend continued in overnight EUR/USD trading, meaning another sell trade and another stop out. However the daily chart gives a possible indication that conditions may be changing in favour of the Five Minutes a Day Trading strategy. The campaign is now in the red, but a win tonight would put us back on track. Today and every day this month we’ll be setting our orders at 5 pm Melbourne/Sydney time.
Ninth trade. 13 March – prices
Looking for a win tonight to move us back into profit territory. Sticking to a plan and persisting even when things are not working as well as hoped are important ingredients in successful trading. We’ve committed to the full month of trading, and will deliver come what may. Onward and upward for the Five Minutes a Day Trading campaign.
Stopped out - results day 8
Once again the overall shape of trading accorded with the Five Minutes a Day Trading strategy, but the result didn’t fall our way. After rising to our sell level, EUR/USD continued higher, just hitting our stop loss level before reversing and trending lower. This put the strategy into loss for the first time in this campaign. Nevertheless, we stick to the strategy and will be back at 5 pm today.
Eighth trade. 12 March – prices
The profitability of this Five Minutes a Day Trading campaign is up for grabs tonight. After two wins and a draw from seven trades, the strategy is up six pips at the moment. A win tonight will put us firmly in profit, a loss will put us in the red for the first time this month. As a trader, I always prefer to play with their money.
The rollercoaster - results day 7
The Five Minutes a Day Trading strategy had the right shape, but didn’t get the prize in a trading session of close calls. However emotional highs and lows are all part of a traders’ lot, and a very good reason to trade to a pre-determined plan. Undeterred, we’ll be implementing our plan again this afternoon. Join us at 5pm for the 8th trade in the 5madt campaign.
Seventh trade. 11 March – prices
After Friday’s trending market we’re looking for more early fluctuation for tonight’s trade. The situation may be helped by the release of German industrial production data in early European trading, followed by US retail sales data at the beginning of the US session. The strategy needs at least five wins from the remaining fifteen trades to deliver a successful campaign.
The trend was not our friend – results day 6
This Five Minutes a Day Trading strategy is looking for a reversing market. Sideways or range trading offers ideal conditions. However on Friday night there was a clear trend in EUR/USD, pushing upwards over the session. Our sell order was triggered, and then our stop loss. However the strategy remains in profit for now, and we’ll look to increase our buffer with this afternoon’s trade.
Sixth trade. 8 March – prices
Going into our final trading session for the week and we have the US Non-Farm Payroll report to look forward to. Regarded by many traders as one of the most important leading indicators of economic growth – this report seldom disappoints in providing various trading opportunities for the astute investor. Join us each day at 5pm Sydney / Melbourne time as we continue to challenge European forex traders.
Win by the skin of our teeth – results day 5
Higher volatility returned in EUR/USD trading overnight, and it delivered a win for the 5madt strategy. Over the first half of the trading session EUR/USD rose to trigger the sell order. The high was less than one pip above that point. After the ECB statement EUR/USD plunged, filling the take profit order. Five trades, two wins, two losses, and a draw. Join us again at 5 pm today.
Fifth trade. 7 March – prices
After an unusual trading environment yesterday we’re looking for a return to more normal levels of volatility. The release of Eurozone employment and GDP data at 9 pm Sydney/Melbourne time may help. The European Central Bank is widely expected to leave interest rates on hold at 11.45 pm, but any accompanying commentary, and/or changes to economic forecasts, could have an impact on EUR/USD.
An unusual session – results day 4
Trade number 4 was unusual in a number of ways. For the first time ever in a live 5 Minutes a Day Trading month we had an open position at the close in New York. Our quantitative analysis shows this occurred only 5 times over the year long study period. A decline in the daily Average True Range indicator is broadly in line with the pattern of trading we’re seeking (sideways) but a pick-up in volatility would likely help the 5madt cause.
Fourth trade. 6 March – prices
Plenty of data tonight to potentially move EUR/USD, including the Markit Germany construction index, an Italian economic note and the OECD interim economic outlook. A trending market hurts the current 5 Minutes a Day Strategy, so we’re looking for a few wobbles before the numbers. Searching for a second win of the campaign.
Staying the course – results day three
Another day, another doughnut. The trend persisted and we bought and were then stopped out. However we stick to our plan – something almost all successful traders do. The campaign is now in profit by 1 pip, despite our 33% success rate. This illustrates the importance of a higher win to loss ratio. We’ll be back this afternoon, trading live.
Third trade. 5 March - prices
Two trades so far. One win, one loss. This 50% strike rate is ahead of the 33% required for a profitable month. A win tonight will have us on track for a strong result, but a loss would simply bring us back to the required success rate. Join us each day at 5 pm Sydney / Melbourne time as we take on the European forex traders.
First loss – results day two
Our second trade was also a Buy entry. Unfortunately the overnight EUR/USD action continued to trend downward and the stop-loss order activated. The 31 pips won on the first trade compares favourably to the 15 pips lost on this trade, and highlights the use of one of a traders most important risk management tools – the stop loss order. Join us at 5pm today (Syd/Melb time) for trade 3.
Second trade. 4 March - prices
Day 2 of the campaign and we’re looking for a second win. There are no guarantees in markets, and our stop loss order will protect capital if our preferred scenarios don’t play out. The analysis shows the strategy needs 7 wins from the 21 trades to make a profit. It would be good to get a few more early winners.
Starting with a win - results day one
The Five Minutes a Day trading campaign is off to a good start. Just after 7.30 pm on Friday night our buy order at 1.1355 triggered (and we cancelled the sell order). On this occasion the analysis proved accurate, as this was less than 2 pips from the session low. The EUR/USD started to climb, and the attached take profit order was hit at around 11.15 pm, delivering a 31 point profit. One trade, one win.
First trade. 1 March - prices
Today CMC Markets launches the 5 Minutes a Day Trading campaign for the month of March, 2019.Each day at 5 pm Sydney time we’ll post the EUR/USD reference price, and two potential trades. One a buy trade, the other a sell trade, both with attached stop-loss and take-profit orders.
Launch - 1 March
This video launches the 5 Minutes a Day Trading campaign for the month of March, 2019. Follow CMC's chief market strategist as he takes on European forex markets in early EUR/USD trading. We go live at 5 pm today.
